The last time there was an in-state NCAA Championship Game in college basketball was in 1962, when Cincinnati beat Ohio State for the second consecutive year. The 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four could produce the first such matchup since then should Florida Atlantic and Miami win their national semifinal games. However, March Madness favorites have historically been more successful, and UConn (-5.5) and San Diego State (-2.5) are favored in the latest 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

In 17 of the last 18 NCAA Tournaments, one of the top two favorites among the Final Four teams has gone on to win the national championship. The outlier during the run was UConn in 2014, which could affect your 2023 NCAA Tournament predictions. Before locking in any NCAA Tournament Final Four 2023 picks or college basketball parlays, be sure to check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 85-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also went 6-1 on top-rated picks during the first two weeks of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Saturday's NCAA Tournament Final Four 2023, revealing against-the-spread and over-under picks for both games. A successful parlay of these picks would pay a colossal 12-1. You can only see its 2023 NCAA Tournament picks at SportsLine

Top 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four predictions, March Madness picks

The model is backing Under 149.5 total points in Miami vs. UConn. In their comeback win against Texas in the Elite Eight, the Hurricanes only took eight three-point shots and made just two of them. In UConn's win against Gonzaga, the Bulldogs hit just 2-of-20 three-point attempts.

Miami had been strong from behind the three-point line in its previous three tournament wins (39.4%), but the Huskies have held opponents to just 27.3% from deep during their four NCAA Tournament 2023 victories. If the Hurricanes are shut down around the perimeter, they could have trouble driving to the basket as well, with freshman center Donovan Clingan protecting the rim. He's averaged 2.3 blocks per game in the NCAA Tournament 2023 and will force Miami into settling for more mid-range jumpers than usual. Get the rest of the parlay here.

How to make 2023 March Madness Final Four picks, parlays

The model also locked in spread and total picks for both games, and it has an underdog winning outright and covering nearly 60% of the time. Head to SportsLine to see its NCAA Tournament 2023 picks

Which college basketball picks should you target in a 12-1 parlay for Saturday's Final Four games? And which team covers in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see the top 2023 NCAA Tournament parlay for the Final Four, all from the model that has generated a profit of over $1,700 on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread.