The No. 7 seed Dayton Flyers aim for their first second-round victory in a decade when they face the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats on Saturday in a West Region matchup of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Dayton (25-7) defeated Syracuse in the second round in 2014 but lost to Oklahoma at that stage of "The Big Dance" the following year and was eliminated in the first round in each of its next two appearances. The Flyers returned to the Tournament this year for the first time since 2017 and overcame a 17-point, second-half deficit to beat Nevada 63-60 on Thursday. Arizona (26-8) avoided its third first-round exit in four appearances by rolling past Long Beach State 85-65 in its opener.
Tipoff from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City is set for 12:45 p.m. ET. The Wildcats are 9-point favorites in the latest Arizona vs. Dayton odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 149. Before making any Dayton vs. Arizona picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Arizona vs. Dayton and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Dayton vs. Arizona:
- Arizona vs. Dayton spread: Wildcats -9
- Arizona vs. Dayton over/under: 149 points
- Arizona vs. Dayton money line: Wildcats -437, Flyers +333
- AZ: The Wildcats are 21-12-1 against the spread this season
- DAY: The Flyers are 10-6-1 ATS in road or neutral-site games in 2023-24
- Arizona vs. Dayton picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Arizona can cover
The Wildcats were firing at will from long distance on Thursday as nearly half of their 72 shot attempts were from 3-point range. They made 13 of their 35 shots from beyond the arc to set the school record for most 3-pointers in an NCAA Tournament game. Sophomore guard Kylan Boswell led the team with four 3-pointers, while senior guards Caleb Love and Pelle Larsson made three apiece.
Boswell was Arizona's top scorer against Long Beach State with a career-high 20 points after amassing a total of 21 over his previous four contests. The Pac-12 Player of the Year, Love finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds for his second double-double of the season, and senior center Oumar Ballo recorded his 18th of the campaign and 13th in 14 games with 11 points and 13 boards. Love has scored 141 points in his NCAA Tournament career, the most of any player in this year's field. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why Dayton can cover
Trailing 56-39 with 7:39 remaining in the second half, the Flyers scored the next 17 points of the game to forge a tie, with junior guard Koby Brea (9) and junior forward DaRon Holmes II (5) combining for 14. Brea made three of his five 3-pointers during the surge and junior forward Nate Santos capped the spurt with a shot from beyond the arc as Dayton made 42.1% of its attempts from long range. Brea has gone 21-for-36 over his last four games and entered the NCAA Tournament with the best 3-point percentage in Division I at 49.2%, with no one else shooting better than 47%.
Holmes, who led the Atlantic 10 Conference in scoring (20.3 points) and rebounding (8.4) this season, nearly posted his fourth consecutive double-double and 13th of the campaign in Thursday's victory as he finished with a game-high 18 points and nine rebounds. The A-10 Player of the Year has recorded at least 12 points and nine boards in nine of his last 10 contests. Holmes and Obi Toppin (20.0 in 2019-20) are the only Flyers in the past 30 years to average 20 or more points in a season, and he joined Purdue's Zach Edey as the only Division I players to produce at least 20 points, eight rebounds and two blocks (2.1) per game in 2023-24. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Arizona vs. Dayton picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 151 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.
So who wins Arizona vs. Dayton, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dayton vs. Arizona spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 148-106 roll on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.
