Iowa State is no longer seemingly invincible at home. The Cyclones lost to West Virginia 72-69 at Hilton Coliseum for their third home loss of the season and eighth loss in their last ten games total. Iowa State has now fallen to 11-12 against the top three quadrants.
That puts them more in line with Oklahoma State and West Virginia than the other Big 12 teams in the field. They have a better overall record than those two, which is saving them for the moment, but with their poor run of play and remaining schedule, I'm adding them to the bubble. If they lose their two remaining games – at Baylor and the first round of the Big 12 Tournament – the committee might have to swallow hard to put them in the field.
They have fallen down to a No. 8 seed in Tuesday's bracket. That would be the best seed ever given to a team that was below .500 against the top three quadrants in the 30 years I have been doing brackets. Because of the strength of schedule in the Big 12, it is not unreasonable to think that a team from that league with such a record could get a little higher seed than before, but not much.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out Palm's latest bracket, full field of 68 and all the teams on the bubble on the Bracketology hub.
Another odd thing about the Cyclones schedule is that all but five of their games are either Quad 1 or Quad 4. So that Quad 1-3 record does not get much help outside of Quad 1.
Compare their résumé to their in-state rival, Iowa. The Hawkeyes and Cyclones are each home court heroes, with just 4-9 records off their home courts. Iowa has the head-to-head result, which was played at Iowa, naturally.
Iowa is one game ahead of Iowa State in overall record and above 13-10 against the top three quadrants in large part due to eight Quad 2 wins.
It is hard to say which the committee would favor in seeding – the team with the head to head result or the team with the stronger schedule. It is a good thing recency bias isn't a factor or ISU might not be in the bracket at all right now.
Michigan has replaced Oklahoma State at the bottom of the bracket following the Cowboys loss at home to Baylor. OSU has a road game left with Texas Tech before the Big 12 Tournament.
