NCAA Basketball: Miami (OH) at Buffalo
Timothy T. Ludwig / USA TODAY Sports

Mid-American Conference heavyweights Buffalo and host Toledo meet Friday evening. Buffalo (21-3, 9-2), which started the season 11-0, is ranked 25th in The Associated Press poll, and has been since the second week of voting. The Bulls have been ranked as high as No. 14. Toledo (20-4, 8-3) has won five straight, but dropped an earlier meeting at Buffalo. The Bulls and Rockets meet at Savage Arena with tip-off set for 7 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Buffalo vs. Toledo odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 160.5. You'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying about the game before laying any Buffalo vs. Toledo picks down of your own.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 15 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 99-67 run on top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on the Buffalo vs. Toledo spread and crunched the numbers. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also has a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations, indicating the line is way off on this one. That one is only available at SportsLine.

Buffalo is out to win its third straight game and is 10-2 in its last 12. The Bulls have dominated Toledo of late, winning the past three meetings and 10 of the last 14. Buffalo also has some favorable trends in that it is 13-9-1 against-the-spread in all games and is 8-5-1 ATS as the road favorite. The Bulls also are 11-8-1 ATS as the favorite, while Toledo is 3-4 ATS against teams that win 65 percent or more of their games.

Buffalo has three players who average 10 or more points, led by senior guard CJ Massinburg (18.5 ppg), senior guard Jeremy Harris (13.9) and senior forward Nick Perkins (13.3).

But just because Buffalo has been red-hot all season long does not guarantee a cover Friday against Toledo.

The Rockets have been hot, winning five straight and eight of 10. Toledo is 11-1 at home. Some trends also favor Toledo, which is 15-8 against the spread in all games. The Rockets are 7-4 ATS at home and are 4-1 ATS when the spread is +1 to +4.5.

Jaelan Sanford (15.8 ppg) is Toledo's leading scorer. He has equaled or surpassed his average in six of his past nine home games, including 29 points in a December win over Cornell. Senior forward Nate Navigato (12.6 ppg) has also played well of late, surpassing his average in three of the past four games, including 20 at Miami of Ohio Jan. 29.

So who wins Buffalo vs. Toledo? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buffalo vs. Toledo spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,200 on its college basketball picks the past two years, and find out.