The No. 13 seed Furman Paladins aim to further their 2023 NCAA Tournament Cinderella story on Saturday. Furman upset No. 4 seed Virginia in a South Region clash on Thursday, and the Paladins will now face the No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs with a trip to the Sweet 16 in the balance. The matchup is set for Amway Center in Orlando, with Furman entering at 28-7 overall after 15 wins in the last 16 games. San Diego State is 28-6 overall after a 63-57 victory over No. 12 seed Charleston in the first round.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Aztecs as 5.5-point favorites for this 12:10 p.m. ET tip on CBS. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 137.5 in the latest Furman vs. San Diego State odds. Before locking in any San Diego State picks vs. Furman, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Furman vs. San Diego State and just locked in its picks and March Madness predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Furman vs. San Diego State:

  • Furman vs. San Diego State spread: SDSU -5.5
  • Furman vs. San Diego State over/under: 137.5 points 
  • Furman vs. San Diego State money line: SDSU -250, Furman +205
  • FUR: The Paladins are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • SDSU: The Aztecs are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • Furman vs. San Diego State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Furman can cover

Furman's offense is tremendous, and the Paladins also have strengths on defense. The Paladins are securing 72% of available defensive rebounds while holding opponents to 33% shooting from 3-point range and just over 11 assists per contest. San Diego State is a poor 2-point shooting team, making only 49% of attempts, and Furman's offense is difficult to contain. Senior forward Jalen Slawson led the way in the win over Virginia with a 17-point, 10-rebound performance, and senior guard Mike Bothwell is averaging 20.2 points per game over the last five appearances. 

Furman is also in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense, assists per game, and 2-point accuracy this season. The Paladins led the Southern Conference in myriad offensive categories, including points per possession and shooting efficiency, and Furman also takes care of the ball with a turnover rate below 16% for the season. 

Why San Diego State can cover

San Diego State is led by its defense, but senior guard Matt Bradley was key in the opening round win over Charleston. Bradley finished with 17 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and he keys an offense that ranked in the top three of the Mountain West this season. San Diego State has an athleticism advantage against Furman, and the Aztecs secure more than 30% of available rebounds on the offensive glass this season. 

On defense, the Aztecs held Charleston to 32% shooting and 21% from 3-point range with only nine assists allowed and nine steals. San Diego State is a top-10 team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, with opponents shooting 29% from 3-point range and making fewer than half of 2-point attempts against the Aztecs. San Diego State is also well above-average in turnover creation, defensive rebounding, shot-blocking, and assist prevention in 2022-23.

How to make Furman vs. San Diego State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, with both teams averaging well over 70 points per game this season. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins Furman vs. San Diego State? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Furman vs. San Diego State spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.