The Idaho Vandals and Sacramento State Hornets square off in an opening round game of the 2022 Big Sky Tournament on Wednesday. The matchup takes place with a morning tipoff time, and both teams are playing improved basketball at the end of the season. Idaho is 4-3 in the last seven games, improving to 9-21 overall and 6-14 in Big Sky play. Sacramento State is 4-1 in its last five games, and the Hornets are 10-17 overall and 6-14 in conference play.
Tip-off is at 11:30 a.m. ET in Boise. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Hornets as two-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 137 in the latest Idaho vs. Sacramento State odds. Before you make any Idaho vs. Sacramento State picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Idaho vs. Sacramento State, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Idaho vs. Sacramento State:
- Idaho vs. Sacramento State spread: Sac. State -2
- Idaho vs. Sacramento State over-under: 137 points
- Idaho vs. Sacramento State money line: Sacramento State -130, Idaho +110
- IDA: The Vandals are 12-8 against the spread in Big Sky games
- SAC: The Hornets are 9-11 against the spread in Big Sky games
Why Idaho can cover
Idaho's defense excels in limiting assists, ranking No. 2 in the Big Sky in assist rate allowed. Sacramento State has the third-worst offensive efficiency mark in the conference, with bottom-two marks in free throw creation and free throw accuracy. The Hornets are also below-average in both two-point shooting and offensive rebound rate.
On the other end, Idaho is impressive as a three-point shooting team, ranking in the top 40 nationally at 36.9 percent for the full season. The Vandals are also above-average in both free throw creation and free throw accuracy, improving overall efficiency. Sacramento State is third-worst in the Big Sky in defensive rebounding and dead-last in assist rate allowed, with opponents shooting more than 53 percent on two-point attempts against the Hornets.
Why Sacramento State can cover
Sacramento State is strong in a few key areas on offense, and this is also a very strong matchup against Idaho's defense. The Hornets are No. 2 in the Big Sky in 3-point shooting, burying more than 38 percent of attempts in conference play. Sacramento State is also turning the ball over on only 17 percent of offensive possessions, and ball security is a strength. From there, Idaho is glaringly poor on defense, headlined by the worst mark in the Big Sky in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Vandals rank dead-last in the conference shooting efficiency allowed and two-point shooting allowed. Not only does Idaho struggle to contest shots, the Vandals are also last in the conference in block rate and steal rate, illustrating a passive approach that can be overcome. In contrast, Sacramento State is in the top four of the Big Sky in both block rate and steal rate, giving the Hornets a clear advantage.
How to make Idaho vs. Sacramento State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, with 10 players projected to score at least seven points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Idaho vs. Sacramento State pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Idaho vs. Sacramento State? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.