The No. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores will face the No. 12 seed Evansville Aces in the first round of the 2023 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Thursday afternoon as Arch Madness rolls on. Indiana State dominated the two regular-season games between these teams, but it lost its chance of a first-round bye when it fell to Belmont and Missouri State last week. Evansville lost its final five games of the regular season, getting blown out by Illinois State on Sunday. The winner of this game will earn a date with No. 4 Belmont in the 2023 MVC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday.
Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Sycamores are favored by 17 points in the latest Indiana State vs. Evansville odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 145. Before entering any Evansville vs. Indiana State picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Indiana State vs. Evansville. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for Evansville vs. Indiana State:
- Indiana State vs. Evansville spread: Indiana State -17
- Indiana State vs. Evansville over/under: 145 points
- Indiana State vs. Evansville money line: Indiana State -2000, Evansville +1050
- Indiana State vs. Evansville picks: See picks here
Why Indiana State can cover
Indiana State had no problem with Evansville during the regular season, cruising to a 91-63 win at home and an 83-65 win on the road. The Sycamores covered the spread in both of those contests, and they went on a seven-game winning streak last month. Their last two games of the regular season were nothing to be concerned about, as they lost at Belmont by one point and against Missouri State by four points.
Senior guard Courvoisier McCauley leads Indiana State with 16.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, scoring in double digits in all but one game since the end of November. He posted a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds at Evansville on Feb. 1. Indiana State has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games, while Evansville has only covered once in its last five games. The Sycamores are 12-1 in their last 13 games against Evansville and are 8-2-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings.
Why Evansville can cover
There were finally some signs that Indiana State's betting value ran out at the end of the regular season, as the Sycamores were 8-point favorites in their 66-62 loss to Missouri State on Sunday. They shot just 3 of 18 from 3-point range (16.7%), and they only scored two fast-break points. Evansville trailed Indiana State by just one point at halftime when these teams met on Feb. 1, so it was a deceiving final scoreline.
Senior guard Kenny Strawbridge Jr. leads Evansville with 14.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game, scoring 38 combined points in his two games against Indiana State. Senior guard Marvin Coleman II is averaging 11.0 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while junior forward Yacine Toumi is adding 10.4 points and 5.7 boards. Indiana State has only covered the spread once in its last five games in March.
How to make Evansville vs. Indiana State picks
The model has simulated Indiana State vs. Evansville 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Evansville vs. Indiana State? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is 76-46 on its top-rated college basketball picks this season, and find out.
