The best job of the still-young coaching carousel season opened as expected on Wednesday as Louisville formally fired embattled coach Kenny Payne after two seasons leading the Cardinals. Payne went 12-52 during his brief time, finished with five wins to 37 losses vs. ACC opponents and stumbled to the finish line with a 2-19 overall record to close out his second and final season.
Louisville's move to part with Payne had long been expected, and while the move takes some pressure off the athletic administration who have heard for months from increasingly dissatisfied Cardinals fans, it's clear AD Josh Heird -- who was elevated to the job just a few months after Payne's hiring in 2022 -- faces big expectations to stick the landing by an insatiable fanbase who has grown weary of the program's direction since Rick Pitino's ouster.
Heird will not only be tasked with finding a coach who will win big but also one with a clean track record who is in it for the long haul. The hire will give Louisville its sixth head coach in nine years when including interims -- David Padgett, Chris Mack, Mike Pegues, Payne and whoever is next -- so stability and success for Heird figure to be at the forefront of his priorities.
One coach in particular checks both those boxes emphatically, making him the top potential target on our candidates list below. But Louisville is a coveted job and this is a career-defining hire for Heird. He will be expected to cast a wide net to narrow down his list and I expect he will. Some other candidates who could make their way into the mix are below.
Dusty May, FAU coach
May has a clean track record and has proven himself capable of doing more with less. A former student manager for Indiana's basketball program under Bob Knight, May, 47, led FAU to the Final Four last season and subsequently signed a 10-year deal with the school after the Owls set a school record with 35 wins. He is 125-67 since taking over the program in 2018 and has a wealth of assistant coaching experience from which to pull from as well following stints at Florida, Louisiana Tech and UAB, among others, the last two decades. FAU won 24 games in the regular season after a Final Four appearance last season and May appears poised to take his team dancing again this postseason.
Amir Abdur-Rahim, USF coach
Program builder would be one way to sell Abdur-Rahim's credentials but it still wouldn't quite be enough. Program savior might be more fitting. He took over a Kennesaw State team in 2019 that went 1-28 and by year four had the Owls in the NCAA Tournament and finishing with a 26-9 record. He's been a game-changing force in his first year at South Florida this season, too, taking the Bulls to a 23-6 record that has included a first-ever appearance in the AP Top 25 poll and a first-ever conference regular season title. The challenge ahead at Louisville may be more difficult than at KSU or USF, but Abdur-Rahim has earned respect as one of the brightest young coaches in the profession.
Scott Drew, Baylor
It's really hard to see Drew coaching anywhere but Baylor -- he took over a Bears program on the verge of the death penalty and in two decades built it into a national champion -- but it's really easy to see why Louisville would be immensely interested. Drew's an affable figure who evaluates, recruits and develops among the best in college hoops and plays a modern style that'd invigorate Louisville. He's 444-242 at Baylor and won two Big 12 regular season titles since 2021 -- the year Baylor went 28-2 and won it all.
Josh Schertz, Indiana State coach
Indiana State won 26 games in the regular season and won the MVC with Schertz in his third year as coach at the Division I level, continuing on an upward trajectory from 11-20 in his first year and 23-13 last season. Schertz lacks for major college experience but was dominant as a coach for Division II Lincoln Memorial and has acquitted himself nicely already in a short time at this level running an up-tempo, 3-point heavy system that works and is wonderful to watch.
Mick Cronin, UCLA coach
A big buyout may be prohibitive from making Mick the pick for Heird given the options elsewhere on the list, but Cronin would be worth a call. At various points this season he has shown discontent with UCLA's NIL support, and the team has already secured its worst season since he took over. Cronin won 58 games the two seasons prior to this year with the Bruins and is still regarded as a no-nonsense coach who can win at the highest level. If you squint a bit you can see some shades of Pitino in how Cronin carries himself.
Nate Oats, Alabama coach
Alabama is 113-52 under Oats' watch and the team plays as modern a style as any in the sport with an emphasis on playing with pace and focusing on 3-pointers and layups while excising inefficient mid-rangers. Bama narrowly missed on a third SEC title in five seasons this year and the team has the No. 2-rated offensive in adjusted efficiency metrics at KenPom. Oats' buyout is believed to be $12 million after signing a new deal last year that runs through 2028-29 so a big buyout may steer Heird in a different direction.
Jerome Tang, Kansas State coach
A long-time disciple and assistant under Scott Drew at Baylor who helped architect one of the best rebuilding jobs in the sport, Tang has blossomed running his own program at Kansas State and is 44-23 since taking over the Wildcats program in 2022-23. He's a charismatic and charming coach who can win in recruiting and would win the press conference. K-State has struggled this season at times and may miss the NCAAs but it was a break or two away from being in the Final Four last season.
Pat Kelsey, Charleston coach
Kelsey is boisterous and bordering on brash but brings an infectious energy that'd play well at Louisville. He won 186 games at Winthrop from 2012-2021 and has led Charleston to two regular season CAA titles, two CAA Tournament titles and two NCAA Tournament appearances in the last two seasons.
Niko Medved, Colorado State coach
Medved turned Furman from a nine-win team in his first season in 2013-14 into a conference champion and 23-win team by his fourth year. He's built a similarly successful program at Colorado State where he has the Rams 22-9 and in the mix to be in the NCAA Tournament for a second time in three seasons. He's due for a bigger job if he wants to jump somewhere else and should have plenty of suitors.
