The third-seeded Kansas State Wildcats will look to reach the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight for the 14th time overall and third time since 2010, when they face the seventh-seeded Michigan State Spartans, who hadn't been this deep into the tournament since reaching the Final Four in 2019, when they battle in a 2023 NCAA Tournament East Region matchup on Thursday in New York. The Spartans (21-12, 11-8 Big Ten), who have won four of their last five games, are eyeing their first Elite Eight appearance since 2019. The Wildcats (25-9, 11-7 Big 12), who have won six of eight, including two in a row, last made the Elite Eight in 2018. Michigan State has won five of the seven meetings between the teams, which last met in 1996.

The game from Madison Square Garden will tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET. Michigan State is allowing 67.2 points per game, while Kansas State allows 68.9. The Spartans are favored by 1-point in the latest Michigan State vs. Kansas State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 138. Before locking in any Kansas State vs. Michigan State picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 83-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. It also went 4-1 on top-rated picks during the first week of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. K-State and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for K-State vs. Michigan State:

  • Michigan State vs. Kansas State spread: Michigan State -1
  • Michigan State vs. Kansas State over/under: 138 points
  • Michigan State vs. Kansas State money line: Michigan State -115, Kansas State -105
  • MSU: The Spartans are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games
  • KSU: The Wildcats have gone 6-4 over their past 10 games overall
  • Michigan State vs. Kansas State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Kansas State can cover

Senior forward Keyontae Johnson is the Wildcats' top scorer, averaging 17.5 points, seven rebounds and 2.2 assists. He is connecting on 51.9% of his field goals, including a blistering 41.1% from 3-point range, and 72.9% from the free-throw line. He has scored in double figures in 33 of 34 games, including a season-high 28 points twice. He scored 28 points, while grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out five assists in a 116-103 win at Texas on Jan. 3, and had 28 points and nine rebounds in a 96-87 overtime win over Nevada on Nov. 22. He has six double-doubles.

Senior guard Markquis Nowell is also a big reason why the Wildcats advanced to the Sweet 16. In two NCAA Tournament games, Nowell has scored 44 points, including 27 on Sunday against Kentucky. In 34 starts this season, he averages 17.1 points, 7.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. He is nearly automatic at the free-throw line, hitting on 88.5% of his foul shots, and connects on 35% of his 3-pointers.

Why Michigan State can cover 

Junior guard A.J. Hoggard is one of three Spartans averaging double-digit scoring. He has scored in double digits in each of his last seven games, including both games in the NCAA Tournament. He scored 11 points, dished out five assists and grabbed three rebounds in the 72-62 win over USC on Friday and had 13 points, four assists and three rebounds in Sunday's 69-60 win over Marquette. In 33 games, including 32 starts, Hoggard is averaging 12.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 30.3 minutes of action.

Junior center Mady Sissoko is coming off a solid effort in the win over Marquette, scoring eight points, while grabbing 10 rebounds. Sissoko, who has started 32 of 33 games this season, averages 5.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and nearly one block in 21.6 minutes of action. He has one double-double on the year, a 10-point and 10-rebound effort against Iowa on Jan. 26. He has reached double-digit scoring five times, and double-figure rebounding in five others.

How to make Michigan State vs. Kansas State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 140 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Kansas State vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.