The Michigan State Spartans head to Madison Square Garden to face Rutgers in the Big Ten's Super Saturday event. The Spartans (14-8, 6-5) beat the Scarlet Knights 70-57 in the first meeting on Jan. 19 at the Breslin Center. Rutgers (15-7, 7-4) has blown out the Spartans in the past two meetings in Piscataway but gave up the home date when selected to play in New York. The Spartans have been recovering since a 77-61 road loss to No. 1 Purdue last Sunday, while the Scarlet Knights routed Minnesota 90-55 on Wednesday.

Tipoff is set for noon ET on Saturday. The Scarlet Knights are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Rutgers college basketball odds, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 126.5. Before locking in any Rutgers vs. Michigan State picks or college basketball predictions, you need to see which side SportsLine expert Matt Severance is on

Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. Over the past two college basketball seasons, he went 391-286 (plus $2,714). Severance also has been on a roll during the 2022-23 college basketball season, going 79-45-1 (plus $1,957) on his last 125 picks. Anyone following him is way up.

Now, Severance has broken down the Michigan State vs. Rutgers matchup and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Rutgers vs. Michigan State:

  • Michigan St. vs. Rutgers spread: Scarlet Knights -4.5 
  • Michigan St. vs. Rutgers over-under: 126.5 points 
  • Michigan St. vs. Rutgers money line: Spartans +167, Scarlet Knights -192
  • MSU: It is 9-5 ATS at neutral sites the past two seasons 
  • RUT: It is 3-7 ATS on neutral courts since the 2018-19 season 
  • Michigan St. vs. Rutgers picks: See picks here

Why Rutgers can cover

The Scarlet Knights are 17-5 against the spread this season, and they beat MSU by 21 and 30 points in the past two games in Piscataway. The January meeting was closer than the score indicated, and Rutgers had a shooting night that's unlikely to be repeated. The Scarlet Knights shot 10% under their season average and hit just 12% from 3-point range.

Rutgers has one of the nation's best defenses, and the Spartans score 69 points per game, which ranks 249th in the country. Rutgers gives up just 58.5, sixth-fewest. The Scarlet Knights have the fourth-best shooting defense, with their opponents making just 37.7% of their attempts. Center Clifford Omoruyi (13.4 points, 9.9 rebounds) and guard Cam Spencer (13.1 points, 2.4 steals) are the stars for Scarlet Knights, who outscore opponents by an average of 12.9 points.

Why Michigan State can cover

The Spartans are 6-4 ATS in their past 10 and should be well-rested. They also should have more confidence not playing in front of the rabid fans in New Jersey. With the exception of a four-point home loss in 2018 and setbacks the past two times they visited Piscataway, the Spartans have won every other meeting by double digits. The average margin in their 11 victories against Rutgers is 17.9 points. The Spartans hit 12 of 22 3-point tries in the last meeting.     

Four players hit three apiece, putting all in double figures scoring -- A.J. Hoggard (16 points), Joey Hauser (14), Tyson Walker (12) and Jaden Akins (11). Hoggard had seven assists, and Walker and Akins had four steals apiece. Walker is the go-to outside shooter, with 37 made threes on 41.1% shooting, while Akins has hit 44.3% of his 61 tries. Spartans opponents shoot 30.5% from outside, best in the Big Ten. Rutgers made two three-pointers in last month's meeting.

How to make Michigan State vs. Rutgers picks

Severance has analyzed the Rutgers vs. Michigan State matchup from all angles, and he is leaning Under on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can find out what it is, and see the rest of Severance's picks and analysis, at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Rutgers on Saturday? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Matt Severance's Rutgers vs. Michigan State pick and analysis, all from the college basketball expert who's up more than $1,900 on recent college basketball picks, and find out.