The St. Thomas (Minn.) Tommies hit the road with revenge on their minds on Tuesday afternoon. St. Thomas lost an early-season matchup against the North Dakota Fighting Hawks, and the Tommies also aim to stop a 12-game losing streak. St. Thomas is 8-19 overall and 2-13 in Summit League play. North Dakota is 6-23 and 2-14 in Summit League action, though the Fighting Hawks are 2-3 in the last five games.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Fighting Hawks as 1.5-point favorites for this 1 p.m. ET tipoff. The latest North Dakota vs. St. Thomas odds also list the over-under at 146 points. Before making any St. Thomas vs. North Dakota picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on St. Thomas vs. North Dakota, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for North Dakota vs. St. Thomas:
- St. Thomas vs. North Dakota spread: North Dakota -1.5
- St. Thomas vs. North Dakota over-under: 146 points
- St. Thomas vs. North Dakota money line: North Dakota -125, St. Thomas +105
- ST: The Tommies are 4-11 against the spread in conference games
- ND: The Fighting Hawks are 8-8 against the spread conference games
Why St. Thomas can cover
St. Thomas has a definitive strength in taking care of the ball on offense. The Tommies commit a turnover on only 12.8 percent of possessions, a top-five mark in the country, and St. Thomas leads the Summit League in steal rate allowed at 3.9 percent. St. Thomas is also very good at the free-throw line, making 77.9 percent of attempts in conference play. The Tommies should also benefit from a subpar North Dakota defense that ranks outside the top 350 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
North Dakota is second-worst in the Summit League in creating turnovers on defense, and the Fighting Hawks are outside the top 350 in the country in shooting efficiency allowed, block rate and steal rate. Opponents are shooting 55.6 percent from 2-point range and 37.9 percent from 3-point range against North Dakota this season. St. Thomas should also be able to create havoc on defense, with the Tommies ranking No. 2 in the Summit League in turnover creation rate at 16.5 percent this season.
Why North Dakota can cover
The Fighting Hawks have juicy matchups on both sides of the floor against St. Thomas, and North Dakota's defense should prosper. North Dakota is in the top 100 nationally in defensive rebound rate, securing 73.7 percent of rebounds after forcing a missed shot. The Fighting Hawks are also above-average in the Summit League in free-throw creation rate allowed. St. Thomas is the worst shooting team in the Summit League this season, including a 51.2 percent mark on 2-point attempts and a 30.9 percent clip from 3-point range.
St. Thomas is also last in the conference in offensive rebound rate, securing only 19.3 percent of missed shots. The Tommies rank last in the Summit League in free-throw creation rate and block rate allowed (10.4 percent), and North Dakota should also be able to take advantage of a St. Thomas defense that falls outside the top 350 in the country in overall efficiency.
How to make St. Thomas vs. North Dakota picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 152 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's North Dakota vs. St. Thomas pick at SportsLine.
So who wins St. Thomas vs. North Dakota? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the St. Thomas vs. North Dakota spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.