It will be a matchup of opposites when the seventh-seeded and 17th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies face the 10th-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Aggies (25-9) rely on physicality, while Penn State (22-13) counts on its shooters. Both teams are on impressive runs that ended in their conference tournament finals. Texas A&M lost 82-63 to fourth-ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, just its second loss in its past 12 games. The Nittany Lions lost a 67-65 nail-biter to fifth-ranked Purdue in the Big Ten title game, its second setback in 10 games. Penn State is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since a first-round loss to Temple in 2011, while the Aggies lost to Michigan in the Sweet 16 in their last appearance in 2018.
Tipoff at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa is set for 9:55 p.m. ET. The Aggies are 2.5-point favorites in Caesars Sportsbook's latest Penn State vs. Texas A&M odds, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 136. Before making any Texas A&M vs. Penn State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Penn State vs. Texas A&M and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Texas A&M vs. Penn State:
- Penn State vs. Texas A&M spread: Aggies -2.5
- Penn State vs. Texas A&M over/under: 136 points
- Penn State vs. Texas A&M money line: Nittany Lions +120, Aggies -140
- PSU: The Nittany Lions are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 neutral-site games.
- TAMU: The Aggies are 9-8 ATS at neutral sites over the past two seasons.
- Penn State vs. Texas A&M picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Texas A&M can cover
The Aggies are 16-7 against the spread when favored by three or more points, and they are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 games. They won all 10 by at least five points, losing the other two. One of those was to the Crimson Tide, one of the nation's best teams, but one the Aggies defeated 67-61 eight days earlier. Texas A&M gets the job done with its physicality, strong rebounding and forcing fouls. They average 19.2 free throws per game, most in the nation, and they hit 76% of those. Leading scorer Wade Taylor IV hits 87.5% from the free-throw line.
Taylor averages 16.5 points and 1.8 steals as part of a gritty core that also features Tyrece Radford, Dexter Dennis and Henry Coleman III. Radford scores 13.2 points and chips in 5.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. Dennis and Coleman both average 9.2 points and share the team lead with 5.7 rebounds per contest. The Aggies average four more rebounds per game than PSU (36.8-32.6) and allow 65.6 points per game while PSU yields 68.2. Texas A&M is 23-11 ATS this season and has won all four previous meetings, the most recent coming in 2017.
Why Penn State can cover
The Nittany Lions are 20-14-1 against the spread this season, 7-4 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. They also will be eager to get back on the court after a heartbreaking loss to the Boilermakers. PSU is one of the nation's best shooting teams, averaging 10.4 made 3-pointers per game. They hit almost 39% of their tries from long range, 11th-best in Division I. Nittany Lions senior Jalen Pickett is one of the most well-rounded players in the nation. The All-Big Ten First Team guard averages 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists and one steal per game.
Seth Lundy averages 14.4 points and fellow guard Andrew Funk scores 12.1, and both shoot better than 40% from 3-point range. The Nittany Lions shoot 46.6% from the field overall, 3% better than the Aggies. Lundy hit three of five tries from long range and scored a team-high 19 points in the loss to Purdue. The Nittany Lions had no answer for Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey, who scored 30 points. Still, they lost by only two points, and the Aggies don't have a 7-foot-4 center. Penn State is tied for third-fewest turnovers in the nation at just 8.8 per game.
How to make Texas A&M vs. Penn State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 142 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Penn State vs. Texas A&M? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
