Sweet 16, Opening Day give Thursday a stacked schedule; major update on Joel Embiid's return

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This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ AM Newsletter, the ultimate guide to every day in sports. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday morning here.

🏀 Good morning to everyone but especially ...

THE MEN'S SWEET 16

After a chalky first two rounds, expect the NCAA Men's Tournament to dip its toe into the madness. The Sweet 16 begins tonight with four games:

(6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona, 7:09 p.m. on CBS
(5) San Diego State vs. (1) UConn, 7:39 p.m. on TBS/truTV
(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina, 30 min. after Clemson-Arizona ends on CBS
(3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State, 30 min. after San Diego State-UConn ends on TBS/truTV

I'm most excited for the day's finale. Illinois has the best offensive rating in the country. Iowa State has the best defensive rating in the country. I wrote about how the Illini -- and all of the Sweet 16 underdogs -- can pull off the upset.

Pereles: "Keys for Illinois: Run ... and run back -- Illinois must run to attack the Cyclones' excellent defense before it can get set. The Cyclones don't allow a ton of transition opportunities, but the one-man transition that is Terrence Shannon Jr. can change that. His 7.6 transition points per game are most in Division I. ... Illinois, meanwhile, is simply awful in transition defense: 299th in transition points allowed. They allowed 20+ transition points in two of their three losses since the start of February."

The Illini and the Cyclones come in second in Kyle Boone's Sweet 16 game rankings, so he's excited for that one, too.

Before we get there, though, we get a rematch of last year's championship game. Can San Diego State get revenge on UConn? That's among Chip Patterson's top storylines for tonight.

Patterson: "The big change for the Aztecs has been the expanded role for senior Jaedon LeDee. A reserve in 2023, he has developed into one of the best players in the country this season. LeDee is averaging 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, recently earning first-team All-Mountain West and third-team AP All-America honors. He's added offensive firepower to a team that was already one of the best in the country defensively."

And even before that tips off, Alabama hopes to break through against North Carolina. Cameron Salerno sets the scene from Los Angeles.

Here are our expert picks, and here's how to watch.

⚾ And also a good morning to everyone but especially ...

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

Happy Opening Day, everyone! All but four MLB teams take to the diamond today (sorry about the rain, Brewers, Mets, Braves and Phillies), and our MLB writers have done a terrific job preparing us for a season chock full of excitement.

R.J. Anderson has the 24 biggest storylines for the '24 season, and the biggest one is already underway: How does the Shohei Ohtani/Ippei Mizuhara investigation play out? The Dodgers' $700 million man alleged his former interpreter stole millions of dollars to cover gambling debt for bets placed illegally. There are still plenty of questions to be answered, and the superteam Dodgers certainly hope things play out in Ohtani's favor. You can read all of R.J.'s storylines here.

As for the actual baseball stuff, Dayn Perry ranked the top 100 players for 2024, which I'm sure everyone will agree with. Here's the top five:

Braves RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
Dodgers SS Mookie Betts
Yankees RF Aaron Judge
Yankees LF Juan Soto
Mariners CF Julio Rodriguez

With two top-five players, the Yankees must be in the top five of Matt Snyder's Opening Day Power Rankings, right? Not quite.

Braves
Dodgers
Astros
Orioles
Phillies

The Bronx Bombers are eighth. Here's why:

Snyder: "Gerrit Cole is hurt. DJ LeMahieu is hurt. Questions remain about Aaron Judge. They'll still be good. Probably. Maybe."

One team we haven't gotten to yet? The reigning champion Rangers. Does Texas have even more help on the way? Here's what Mike Axisa has to say in his bold predictions for every team.

Axisa: "Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford will both be ROY finalists -- In Carter, a postseason hero, and Langford, the No. 4 pick in last summer's draft, the Rangers have two of the four best prospects in baseball. Carter is still rookie-eligible and Langford is poised to play a full-time role this year. Texas has not had a player finish in the top three of the Rookie of the Year voting since Yu Darvish finished third in 2012 ... and they'll end that drought emphatically this year."

Time for what you've been waiting for: expert predictions. We've got World Series predictions, playoff predictions, standings predictions and individual award predictions, too, so be sure to check out both of those stories.

All right, home stretch here. First, everything else you need to know:

And finally, here are season previews for every single team.

AL East: Blue Jays | Orioles | Rays | Red Sox | Yankees
AL West: Angels | Astros | Athletics | Mariners | Rangers
AL Central: Guardians | Royals | Tigers | Twins | White Sox
NL East: Braves | Marlins | Mets | Nationals | Phillies
NL West: Diamondbacks | Dodgers | Giants | Padres | Rockies
NL Central: Brewers | Cardinals | Cubs | Pirates | Reds

😊 Honorable mentions

The BIG3 offered millions to Caitlin Clark.
Louisville hired Pat Kelsey. He wasn't the Cardinals' first (or second) choice, but he could find success, Gary Parrish writes.
Mitchell Robinson played for the first time since Dec. 8 as the Knicks crushed the Raptors.
The Dodgers gave Will Smith a 10-year, $140 million extension.
Max Scherzer (back surgery) may not miss as much time as expected.
The Yankees, Rays and Marlins made a trade.
The Men's Division II Final Four is today. Here's how to watch.
The Lions are getting new uniforms.
After much back and forth and a failed attempt in the Virginia General Assembly, the Wizards and Capitals are staying in Washington, D.C. ... as they should be. The city will help fund a renovated Capital One Arena, where both teams will stay through 2050.

😓 Not so honorable mentions

LeBron James is not a fan of college basketball.
Draymond Green got ejected (again), and watch out, Warriors. Here come the ... Rockets?! Sam Quinn explores if Houston can do the unthinkable.
Jordan Lawlar (thumb surgery) will miss several months.
Charlie Baker wants college prop betting to end.
Miguel Rojas fired back at Jazz Chisholm.

🏀 Joel Embiid expected back before end of regular season

The 76ers may have lost in controversial fashion Wednesday, but it was a positive day as a whole. Before the game, Nick Nurse said there's "a very good likelihood" reigning MVP Joel Embiid returns before the end of the regular season.

Embiid, 30, hasn't played since Jan. 30, when he suffered a knee injury and underwent surgery shortly thereafter. He's averaging 35 points, 11 rebounds and six assists this season and was a frontrunner to defend his MVP award.
Philadelphia is 26-8 when Embiid plays and just 13-26 when he doesn't. As a result, the 76ers have fallen from a top-three seed in the East to eighth, a half-game behind the Heat. That's a play-in tournament spot, where two losses would have them miss the playoffs completely. So getting Embiid back and acclimated before that would be a huge plus.
The 76ers have nine games left, and the regular season ends April 14.

🏈 Which NFL teams could stop a Chiefs three-peat?

No team has ever won three straight Super Bowls, but then again, no one has ever played quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. If there's anyone who can do it, it might be him, and an improved supporting cast and still-strong defense will help.

So, who can stop them? Cody Benjamin ranked 11 teams that can thwart the champs, from sleepers to honorable mentions to contenders. One of my favorites comes in third.

Benjamin: "3. Texans -- Houston could benefit from a wide-open AFC South, but the biggest reason the Texans should be on everyone's radar is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who flashed MVP stuff in 2023. ... DeMeco Ryans' defense, meanwhile, should be even better in support, with Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair bringing an imposing physicality to the front seven."

I love what the Texans have done this offseason -- don't forget the steady Joe Mixon, either -- and I can't wait to see what the second year of the Ryans-Stroud pairing has in store.

📺 What we're watching Thursday

🏀 (6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona, 7:09 p.m. on CBS
⚾ Cubs at Rangers, 7:35 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 (5) San Diego State vs. (1) UConn, 7:39 p.m. on TBS/truTV
🏀 Bucks at Pelicans, 8 p.m. on NBA TV
🏀 (4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina, 30 min. after Clemson-Arizona ends on CBS
🏀 (3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State, 30 min. after San Diego State-UConn ends on TBS/truTV