The No. 13 seed Arkansas State Red Wolves (13-19) and the No. 5 seed Troy Trojans (19-12) square off in the second round of the 2023 Sun Belt Tournament on Thursday afternoon. Troy leads the all-time series 15-11, including a three-game win streak over the Red Wolves. On Feb. 16, the Trojans outmatched the Red Wolves 67-62. The winner of this contest advances to play No. 4 seed James Madison Saturday in the quarterfinals. 

Tipoff from Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola is set for 3 p.m. ET. The Trojans are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Arkansas State vs. Troy, odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 134.5. Before making any Troy vs. Arkansas State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Troy vs. Arkansas State and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Arkansas State vs. Troy:

  • Arkansas State vs. Troy spread: Trojans -8.5
  • Arkansas State vs. Troy State over/under: 134.5 points
  • Arkansas State vs. Troy money line: Trojans -420, Red Wolves +320
  • ARST: Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall
  • TROY: Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game
  • Arkansas State vs. Troy picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves

Why Arkansas State can cover

Senior forward Omar El-Sheikh is a powerful and mobile force in the frontcourt. The native of Egypt is third in the Sun Belt in rebounds (9.7) with 11.5 points per game. He's recorded 12 doubles-doubles on the season. In the first-round win, El-Sheikh had 13 points and 15 rebounds.

Freshman guard Terrance Ford Jr. has been a floor-spacing threat from the outside. Ford has a reliable jumper and scans the floor well as a playmaker. The Illinois native averages 10.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. He's put up at least 20 points and four 3-pointers in two of his last four games. On Feb. 28, Ford Jr. racked up 25 points, five assists and went 4-of-4 from downtown.

Why Troy can cover 

Senior guard Nelson Phillips has found his rhythm offensively towards the end of the season. The Georgia native is averaging 11 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. He's dropped at least 20 points in three of his last five games. Additionally. Phillips is second in the conference in steals (2.1). On Feb. 16 against Arkansas State, he had 22 points, four rebounds and two steals.

Junior guard Aamer Muhammad is a downhill scorer in the backcourt. Muhammad owns good quickness and speed to get into the lane constantly. The New Mexico native averages 10.7 points and 2.5 assists per game. On Feb. 22, he recorded 14 points, three rebounds and four assists. 

How to make Troy vs. Arkansas State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 135 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Arkansas State vs. Troy? And which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $1,600 on its college basketball picks this season, and find out.