The 2023-24 college football bowl schedule has arrived, and time is running out to craft a winning college football bowl confidence strategy. There are only seven games featuring double-digit spreads in the college football bowl odds from SportsLine consensus, which means there are more than 30 games featuring single-digit spreads. It can be difficult to rank those games in terms of confidence, but success in your 2023-24 college football bowl confidence pools could come down to a few key picks. Which teams should you have at the top of your college football bowl confidence picks?

No. 8 Oregon is the heaviest favorite in the college football bowl spreads, with the Ducks at -17.5 against No. 23 Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day. They are going to be at the top of a large chunk of bowl confidence rankings, but an upset could doom entries across the country. Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, don't miss the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine

Top college football bowl confidence predictions

One of the top 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 6 Georgia gets a comfortable win over No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens. The Bulldogs were considered the top team in college football for most of the season, but their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship snapped their 29-game winning streak and ended their quest for a third straight national title. However, starting quarterback Carson Beck ranked fourth nationally with 3,738 passing yards, leading an offense that had the seventh-most points in college football.

Florida State's defense is dealing with immense pressure heading into this matchup, as the Seminoles cannot rely on their offense to move the ball without injured star quarterback Jordan Travis (leg). They will also be without wide receiver Johnny Wilson, who opted out of this game to declare for the NFL draft. SportsLine's model has Florida State finishing with fewer than 20 points in the latest simulations, which is why Georgia is winning almost 80% of the time.

Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: No. 25 Kansas State handles No. 18 NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. Kansas State was impressive down the stretch of the regular season, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread. The Wildcats averaged a whopping 37.8 points per game, and freshman quarterback Avery Johnson is prepared to step in for Will Howard, who opted out of this game.

Johnson got valuable reps during the regular season, completing 65.7% of his passes for 301 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions while rushing for 217 yards and six more scores. He is facing an NC State defense that allowed a combined 48 points in its final two games. SportsLine's model projects more than 240 total yards and two touchdowns for Johnson, which is one reason why the Wildcats are winning in well over 60% of the latest simulations. See all of the model's college football bowl confidence picks here.

How to make college football bowl confidence picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are 19 teams that win at least 65% of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model's picks over at SportsLine

So who wins every college football bowl game, and which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past six-plus season, and find out. 

2023-24 college football bowl schedule

See full bowl confidence picks at SportsLine

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern, 11 a.m. ET
New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State, 2:15 p.m. ET
Cure Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ET
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State, 5:45 p.m. ET
LA Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET
Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California, 9:15 p.m. ET

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse vs. USF, 8 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 23

Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State, noon
Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy, noon
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison, 3:30 p.m. ET
Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State, 3:30 p.m. ET
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama, 7 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina, 10:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, 2 p.m. ET
First Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 5:30 p.m. ET
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. ET

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET
Duke's Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ET
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET
Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ET
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers, 2:15 p.m. ET
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 25 Kansas State vs. No. 18 North Carolina State, 5:45 p.m. ET
Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona, 9:15 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky, noon ET
Sun Bowl: No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State, 2 p.m. ET
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ET
Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri, 8 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, noon ET
Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn, 2 p.m. ET
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia, 4 p.m. ET
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo, 4:30 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 13 LSU vs. Wisconsin, noon ET
Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa, 1 p.m. ET
Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty, 1 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama, 5 p.m. ET
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 8

CFP National Championship Game: Winner of Rose Bowl vs. Winner of Sugar Bowl, 7:30 p.m. ET