After a few truly special weeks in a row, a regression to the mean was coming. Unfortunately, the penultimate week of the year was a flop with only one of four upset picks hitting -- and two ending in completely embarrassing fashion for us.
Texas absolutely crushed Kansas 55-14, leaving no doubt on a -9 line. Oklahoma jumped out to a 28-0 lead after the first quarter of Bedlam against Oklahoma State and never looked back. Nebraska came one point away from hitting the upset against Wisconsin, while Duke dropped by two points against Pitt. Thankfully, Houston came through with a 42-3 shellacking of East Carolina.
This week, rivalries take center stage. The biggest game of the weekend in Columbus, Ohio, features a surprisingly big line. Games against in-state opponents for Alabama and Clemson have even bigger totals. Let's prepare for chaos. Here are five games that jump out to us in Week 13 for upsets on the money line.
"Upset" is defined by odds, not rankings. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Lines may shift after publication.
Baylor at No. 23 Texas
When: Friday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Darrell K. Royal Stadium -- Austin, Texas
Texas has been overvalued by analytic systems all season thanks to a close result against Alabama and domination of an Oklahoma team without its quarterback. The favorable metrics leave the Longhorns as a two-score favorite against Baylor despite only winning one game since the Red River Showdown by double-figures: Kansas.
Baylor gave rival TCU its toughest game of the year in a 29-28 loss, compiling more than 500 total yards and five yards per carry against a Frogs defense that held Longhorns rusher Bijan Robinson to 29 yards. The Longhorns are 1-3 against the top six of the Big 12 standings and tried their best to blow a 31-10 lead against Kansas State. Pick: Baylor +260
No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Ohio Stadium -- Columbus, Ohio
Revenge is on the mind as The Game features a play-in for the College Football Playoff. Ohio State has spent the last year preparing for the rematch after losing 42-27 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has positioned the defense well against lesser competition, but Ohio State has not played a team that can push it to the physical limit.
Michigan is a flawed team that is one-dimensional on offensive. When running back Blake Corum went out against Illinois, the Wolverines' offense fell apart. However, Corum should be back for Michigan and Ohio State has not faced a team that can compete with them in the trenches since the slog against Notre Dame. Take the chance. Pick: Michigan +240
Coastal Carolina at James Madison
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Bridgeforth Stadium -- Harrisonburg, Virginia
The massive line in this game is perhaps the biggest endorsement possible for Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall, who will miss the matchup with a foot injury. Backup Jarrett Guest threw two interceptions in a tight 26-23 win over Southern Miss as the Chanticleers nearly blew a 17-0 first-quarter lead. A canceled game against Virginia last week only adds a level of confusion to evaluating this squad.
However, James Madison hasn't been quit itself over the last month, losing games to Georgia Southern, Marshall and Louisville, and giving up 40 points to Georgia State. The Dukes have an impressive top line of talent, but Coastal Carolina has the depth, experience and maturity to take care of business and keep its New Year's Six hopes alive. Pick: Coastal Carolina +430
South Carolina at No. 8 Clemson
When: Saturday 12 p.m. ET | Where: Clemson Stadium -- Clemson, South Carolina
Can lightning strike twice? Sure, why not. Clemson has dominated this matchup, winning seven straight games dating back to 2014. However, the Tigers get Shane Beamer's Gamecocks right as they are finding their rhythm.
Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler rediscovered his mojo with a school-record six touchdown passes in a 63-38 victory over No. 10 Tennessee. South Carolina scored on nine of its 10 full possessions to clinch back-to-back winning seasons. There's a path for South Carolina to have the best quarterback on the field if things go right. Pick: South Carolina +430
Auburn at No. 7 Alabama
When: Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium -- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Do you believe it miracles? I don't, but for more than 10-to-1 value involving one of the biggest rivalries in college football, I'll try my best. Since firing Bryan Harsin, the Tigers took a decent Mississippi State squad to overtime, and beat Texas A&M and Western Kentucky. The vibes around the program under interim coach Cadillac Williams are on a different level.
Alabama is on a different talent and production level, but the Tide have been incredibly vulnerable in 2022. Nick Saban's squad has won three games by one score, including a field goal as time expired against Texas and stopping Texas A&M at the goal line. Last week, the Tide scored just 17 first-half points against FCS opponent Austin Peay. Alabama isn't Alabama this year, and a juiced-up Auburn team could take advantage. Pick: Auburn +1050
| Games | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
Last Week | 1-4 | -1.15 |
Season | 11-29 | 10.19 |
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 13, and which top-25 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past six-plus seasons -- and find out.
