I want to clarify upfront that these aren't the only players I'm prioritizing in drafts this year. They aren't even necessarily the players I'm prioritizing the most. I have a lot of draft prep articles yet to write in the next couple months, and not every one can be the same greatest hits compilation. So I'll just put it this way: among the players I'm prioritizing, these fit the purest definition of "sleeper."
What I mean is these players are being drafted in a way that doesn't properly account for their upside. Granted, there may be reasons to doubt them -- no sleeper has ever been a sure thing -- but for the cost, I'll generally accept the risk in pursuit of the reward.
- Sleepers 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
There's an element of value here, in other words, which won't necessarily be true for my Breakouts 1.0.
But enough small talk. Let's get to the meat.
Cole Ragans, SP/RP, Royals
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NFBC ADP: 113.1
Our first clue of what was coming for Ragans was the 4 mph velocity bump last spring. A 1 mph increase can be enough to transform a pitcher completely, but 4 was almost too much to process at the time and soon forgotten anyway because he became buried in the Rangers bullpen. It was the Royals, of all teams, that had the good sense to free him, acquiring him in the Aroldis Chapman trade, and with a few tweaks to his arsenal, he was off to the races, putting together a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 in 11 starts from Aug. 2 on.
But maybe you know this already. Maybe everyone who plays Fantasy Baseball does. Judging by early ADP, though, knowing is not the same as believing, and it's on these grounds that I call Ragans a sleeper. Him going 30th (or thereabouts) at starting pitcher is the sort of weak tea that won't hold up in our current pitching landscape. Between the shift ban, the increased base runner activity, the sticky substance crackdown and the continued inconsistencies with the ball itself, there are simply too many ways a start can go bad now, and time and time again last year, we saw things spiral out of control for even some of the best pitchers in the game. In such an environment, the only surefire way to avoid getting burned is to avoid contact altogether.
I understand that "surefire" is about the least fitting description for Ragans. He's a two-time Tommy John survivor with a shaky control history and short track record of success. But he embarrased the opposition for two solid months with no less than four swing-and-miss secondaries and a fastball that peaked at 101 mph, putting him among the hardest-throwing left-handers in history. It makes him one of just a handful hurlers with the stuff to navigate the current pitching minefield, which to me makes him more like a top-15 option at the position.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals
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NFBC ADP: 171.9
We're doing this again, huh? Yes, things didn't end well for Pasquantino in 2023, which means you've probably forgotten how well they started. Through 38 games, he was slashing .298/.383/.539, looking every bit like the OPS hog he was hyped to be. It was about that time that his shoulder began bothering him, and as we all know, what was initially classified as discomfort was eventually revealed to be a torn labrum that would require season-ending surgery.
But "eventually" is not something to gloss over. Pasquantino played at less than 100 percent for a while, and given what we knew about him heading into 2023, it probably explains why his average exit velocity went from 91.8 mph in those first 38 games to 85.1 mph thereafter, dragging down the rest of his numbers such that the bloom is now off the rose. But we're still talking about a guy who slashed .292/.382/.569 over his minor-league career and .295/.383/.450 as a rookie -- one whose quality of contact is only outdone by his quantity of contact, his 11.9 percent strikeout rate ranking alongside slap hitters like Steven Kwan and Nico Hoerner. In a year, he's gone from being one of the most coveted first basemen to an also-ran at the position, which seems like too steep of a discount.
Carlos Rodon, SP, Yankees
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NFBC ADP: 176.1
As I've pointed out already, the pitching environment we were introduced to last year isn't so conducive to aces, with the clearest differentiator being an ability to miss bats. That's something Rodon did in no small measure in 2021 and 2022, when he had a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with his 12.2 K/9. It made him a surefire ace then and gives him the capacity to be one now.
The problem, of course, is that his 2023 was an out-and-out disaster and nobody trusts him anymore. That's fair enough, but before rendering a final verdict, it's important to understand why. And while I can only offer guesses along those lines, my biggest is that he suffered a forearm strain in spring training and was never quite right thereafter. There were signs of this even before he returned in July, his initially short timetable being pushed back by back issues, and it sounds like all the turmoil may have wreaked havoc mechanically.
"I think the consistency of the delivery is a piece of it," pitching coach Matt Blake told the New York Post back in October. "There's certain things in the lower half that we want to see on a consistent basis that we'll kind of dive into."
But Rodon still had the same velocity as the previous two years. He still had nearly a 40 percent whiff rate on his slider. He still has the building blocks of an ace even if they've been toppled a bit, and in this environment, having an opportunity at such upside so late is nothing short of a gift.
Chris Sale, SP, Braves
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NFBC ADP: 180.3
Another year, another chance for me to tell you that Chris Sale, despite any evidence to the contrary, is still good. I was tempted to back off that position until the Braves decided to deal their No. 1 trade asset, Vaughn Grissom, for him in December. Few things are as validating in the Year of Our Lord 2024 as Alex Anthopoulos backing your play. He sees what I also see, which is that, for all the injuries of the past several years, Sale remains a bat-misser of the highest order. his 11.0 K/9 last year would have ranked fifth among qualifiers, and his 13.2 percent swinging-strike rate would have ranked ninth. At a time when more contact is leading to more baserunners leading to more activity on the base paths, missing bats is the safest way forward.
But there's the rub. How is Sale, a pitcher who has thrown a total of 151 innings over the past four years, anyone's idea of safe? OK, so he's not, but it's more a question of what sort of profile is the safest bet to deliver in this new world for pitchers. Sale has it in a way few pitchers do.
Looking back through that injury history, there was the Tommy John surgery in 2020, but then there was also a fractured rib cage and a fractured wrist, which were more like freak occurrences than the natural consequences of his job. The stress reaction in his shoulder last year was a little more worrisome, but he was at his best after returning, delivering a 3.92 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9. Nobody expects him to go 215 innings as he did in his heyday with the White Sox, but if Sale can give you 140 with the Braves offense backing him, it'll do wonders for your place in the standings.
Nick Pivetta, SP/RP, Red Sox
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NFBC ADP: 189.7
It's at this point that you may start freaking out, thinking you've wasted the last 10-15 minutes reading an article from 2019, but let me assure you that my enthusiasm for Pivetta is brand new to 2024. With three pitches capable of generating whiffs at a high rate, the strikeout potential was always there, which is what made him a trendy sleeper all those years ago, but sometimes it takes that long for talent to coalesce.
The key for him may have been a move to the bullpen in mid-May, where the need for immediate results forced him to go on the attack unlike ever before. He went from throwing 63 percent of his pitches for strikes before the move to 66 percent thereafter and took that mentality back with him to the rotation in the second half, putting together a 3.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 12.5 K/9. There were indeed a lot of relief appearances mixed in there, but they were mostly of the multi-inning variety as the Red Sox eased Pivetta back into starting. He went seven innings in each of his final two outings, allowing a combined five hits with 17 strikeouts to two walks. That'll play.
The four stud rookies
NFBC ADP (respectively): 161.1, 175.6, 207.0, 229.1
The top four in my top 100 prospects for 2024 all have a better chance than not of making the Opening Day roster. If that sounds far-fetched to you, then you haven't noticed the trend in the last couple of years of the very best prospects doing exactly that. The prevailing assumption is that service time manipulation still drives the timeline for prospect promotions -- and it can play a role, sure -- but the latest CBA introduced a new incentive that supersedes that one, rewarding draft picks to teams whose top prospects make good. To be eligible, the prospect must have spent his entire rookie season on the major league roster, from Opening Day on. It's a big reason why we saw Jordan Walker and Anthony Volpe make their respective clubs last spring, not to mention eventual Rookie of the Year winners Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson.
And a couple of these players' teams have already tipped their hand. The Rays promoted Junior Caminero late last year, following the Carroll and Henderson plan of giving him a sneak peek so the Opening Day task wouldn't seem so daunting. Meanwhile, the Brewers signed Jackson Chourio to a long-term contract, taking the service time manipulation incentive off the table completely. The Brewers have also left a clear opening for Chourio in their lineup, as the Orioles have for Jackson Holliday. Caminero's and Wyatt Langford's paths are cloudier, but no one standing in their way is immovable. The beauty of this new incentive is that the talent tends to win out.
And the talent is what matters for our purposes. It's true that, on the whole, prospect call-ups haven't been as bankable in recent years (see Walker, Volpe), but if anything, that's only helped to drive down the cost of such lottery tickets. Those who invested in Carroll and Henderson last year, not to mention Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez the year before, were richly rewarded. Drafting a prospect is still your best bet for securing huge production at a not-so-huge cost, and while it's a bet you may ultimately lose, the consequences at these players' current cost are almost nothing. We'll revisit when it becomes clear this spring that they're competing for a job and begin flying up draft boards as a result, but if you're drafting on the early side, then by all means, take advantage.
Mitch Garver, C, Mariners
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NFBC ADP: 198.8
Garver homered 31 times in just 93 games for the Twins in 2019, and I've been chasing that high ever since. I know what the actual numbers look like, but he's left breadcrumbs to suggest the 31-homer guy is still in there, buried in a history of injuries and playing-time concerns. The Rangers may have unlocked the secret, though, making him their primary DH over the final six weeks. He started 40 of their final 43 games, which is far more than the average catcher-eligible player gets to play, and hit .283 (50 for 177) with 14 homers and a .937 OPS from Aug. 1 on, making him the third-best catcher in Fantasy during that stretch.
Playing DH of course limits his chances to get hurt and takes any concerns about his defense off the table, but it's a narrow path to playing time that not many teams can provide him. Fortunately, one of those teams saw fit to sign him this offseason, positioning him to be the Mariners' primary DH this year and next. T-Mobile Park is a tougher place to hit than Globe Life Field, but with his high-end exit velocities, Statcast estimates that Garver would have hit the same number of home runs at both venues last year. With his role secure and his opportunities for derailment limited, this may finally be the year he performs like a top-five catcher, where he remains eligible in Fantasy.
Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, Reds
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NFBC ADP: 241.2
You may have heard Great American Ball Park is a good place to hit. No other venue is more conducive to home runs than it, and that's been true basically since the day it opened in 2003. If you require more evidence, look no further than TJ Friedl, who somehow smashed 18 homers last despite some of the worst exit velocity readings in the game. Candelario's exit velocity readings aren't among the worst in the game, but they're in the lower half, making his career-high 22 homers last year about the best he should be able to do. But Statcast estimates he would have hit 30 homers if he had played every game at Great American Ball Park last year.
He'll never play all of them there, but he will play half this year after signing with the Reds in the offseason, and it doesn't seem like early drafters are taking into account what it could mean for him statistically -- not only because of the venue but also because he'll be playing the role of veteran facilitator in a lineup that's dripping with young talent. Keep in mind Candelario has spent the majority of his career in Detroit, playing in maybe the most power-suppressing park in all the majors. He's following in the footsteps, then, of Nick Castellanos, whose departure from the Tigers led to him hitting .309 with 34 homers and a .939 OPS in his one full season in Cincinnati. Candelario won't do that, of course, but it's not hard to imagine him hitting .275 with 25 homers and the sort of counting stats that vault him to must-start status in Fantasy.
Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Phillies
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NFBC ADP: 253.6
Nobody thought much of Sanchez when the Phillies slotted him into the rotation in mid-June. He was, after all, a 26-year-old with no real prospect pedigree and mediocre minor-league numbers. Even when he proved effective enough to enter the streamer conversation, it seemed like regression would take hold eventually, but instead, he just got better and better and better. By the season's end, it was hard to find anything wrong with him.
Understandably, it's still a source of skepticism, and if it wasn't, I might be sitting here making the bust case for him instead. But to put actual numbers to the narrative, Sanchez's 57 percent ground-ball rate would have ranked second among qualifiers, and his 4 percent walk rate would have ranked fourth. By those measures alone, he would seem to be a useful Fantasy pitcher but then came the coup de grace in September. He began throwing his changeup more and became a genuine bat-misser as a result. The pitch had a 43 percent whiff rate for the year and gave him a 17 percent swinging-strike rate for the month. He struck out 10 in two of those starts, including one against the mighty Braves.
Maybe time brings Sanchez down to size and he ends up performing more like the pitcher he was in the minors, in which case he'd have no Fantasy value. But if he had just dropped out of the sky last June and we had no other reference point for him, we'd think he's a stud in the making, capable of dominating in all three of the areas FIP accounts for.
Emmet Sheehan, SP, Dodgers
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NFBC ADP: 260.5
The talk of the minors the first two months with a 1.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 14.9 K/9 for Double-A Tulsa, Sheehan arrived to great fanfare in June and then very quickly squandered it, struggling to generate whiffs as his ERA climbed near 7.00 after seven starts. And then it seemed like everyone checked out on him, his meteoric rise having been determined to be a mirage.
What you may have missed -- and what a glance at the numbers won't show -- is how different he looked at the end of the season, putting together a 1.98 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 15.8 K/9 in his final three appearances (spanning 13 2/3 innings), including a 10-strikeout effort at Coors Field in the final week of the season. He stopped throwing his fastball so much, instead giving his slider and changeup a chance to shine, and all three pitches played up as a result, giving him an astonishing 23 percent swinging-strike rate during that time. I'd call it Strider-like, but Spencer Strider's swinging-strike rate last year was a mere 18.9 percent. I'd call it a small-sample fluke, but Sheehan had a 20 percent swinging strike rate during those first two months at Double-A. Now that he's figured out sequencing, it would appear the stuff plays.
One reason the Dodgers were willing to move Ryan Pepiot in the Tyler Glasnow deal, I think, is because of what Sheehan showed he could do at the end of the year. For all their maneuvering this offseason, they've kept a rotation spot open for him, and seeing as he threw a combined 123 1/3 innings last year, they can let him run with it.
Erick Fedde, SP, White Sox
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NFBC ADP: 609.3
Do you see those numbers? Not the Erick Fedde you remember, right? No, that one compiled a 5.41 ERA in six years with the Nationals, never making good on the potential that once made him the 18th overall pick in the 2014 draft. All it took was one year overseas to transform him into an absolute world-beater, winning Korea's equivalent of both the Cy Young and MVP.
He wouldn't be the first no-name to use a successful stint in East Asia as a springboard to major-league prominence -- one of the most notable being Merrill Kelly, who also pitched in Korea. But what Fedde did was next level and actually began before he even set foot in Korea. He spent the offseason prior working at the PUSH Performance facility to remake his mechanics and arsenal, adding a sweeper and split-change that White Sox pitching advisor Brian Bannister compared to Logan Webb's. And you know what makes that comparison apt? Webb led all the majors last year with a 62.1 percent ground-ball rate. Fedde's rate in Korea was 70 percent, which is unheard of. The strikeout and walk rates were also unlike what we've seen from Fedde before.
You can probably just forget everything we've seen from Fedde before because this is a completely different pitcher. How exactly his performance from Korea will translate is impossible to say, but nobody who's taken this career path was as dominant over there as he was, which would suggest an ace outcome is within the realm of possibility.
Michael Busch, 3B, Cubs
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NFBC ADP: 625.0
The Dodgers liked Busch, refusing to include him in countless trade negotiations over the years, if reports are to be believed. But after another offseason blocking his every path to playing time, they finally conceded that it wasn't going to happen with them and dealt him for a couple prospects of lower urgency, almost like a shop clerk rotating milk containers so that nothing's permitted to spoil.
Age 26 is pretty close to the spoiling, though, and so even though this opportunity for Busch has been a long time coming, the delay might lead some to conclude that he's not actually as good as his numbers, that his .323/.431/.618 slash line at Triple-A Oklahoma City last year must have been a mirage. What that theory ignores is his 91.3 mph average exit velocity. It ignores his 89.5 percent zone-contact rate and 7.7 swinging-strike rate. It ignores the fact that by every data point modern analysts hold dear, Busch thoroughly dominated. It also ignores the years of scouting reports denoting a hitting prowess that wasn't fully backed up by the numbers -- not until 2023, anyway.
Busch is disciplined without being passive and powerful without being reckless. He knows when to swing and doesn't miss when he does, which is about as comforting of a hitting profile as you'll find. We don't know whether he'll pay first or third base for the Cubs yet, but we know he'll play, which we could never say when he was with the Dodgers. And that's reason enough to prioritize him late, particularly in points leagues where his walks are of direct benefit.
