Ascertaining how a player's outlook has changed for next year and beyond, which is generally the focus in dynasty leagues, typically involves some combination of gauging perception and crunching numbers.
But sometimes, an organization will straight-up tell you.
That's what recently happened with Adalberto Mondesi, the 26-year-old who has barely played this year because of hamstring and oblique injuries. Regarded as the preeminent base-stealer in the game today, with some power in development as well, he would seem like a critical dynasty asset. But Royals GM Dayton Moore poured cold water on that idea:
Dayton Moore asked by @bobfescoe if he can count on Mondesi in 2022.
— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier610) August 2, 2021
"No. You can't. ... We're learning that we're going to have to manage his workloads in ways that he may not be a guy that plays more than 100 games. ... We can't count on him as an everyday player." #Royals
So is the thinking that they're going to manage Mondesi's workload, limiting him to only 100 games or so? Or is Moore simply saying they'll hope for the best but have to design their roster with the expectation he'll miss significant time?
In any case, sounds like it's stock down for Mondesi in dynasty leagues. Here are some other players and prospect who have seen their dynasty outlook improve or suffer in recent weeks.
I've delayed featuring Matt Olson here because I've been expecting his strikeout rate to normalize. But it just keeps getting better, going from 17.4 percent in April to 16.4 in May to 15.7 in June to 14.7 in July. That downward trend can't continue forever, of course, but I guess he really is done being a 30 percent-strikeout guy, in which case he looks a lot like Cody Bellinger used to. The question now is if there's a case to take Olson even earlier than Round 3 in a redraft next year.
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Like with Olson, I don't have the energy to resist Bryan Reynolds anymore. Maybe he's just one of those rare players who can sustain a BABIP north of .350 given that he's done it basically every month this year ... not to mention in 2019, when he hit .314 with an .880 OPS. It's just that 2020 season, short as it was, that's still giving us pause, but I think by now, we can call it the aberration. Reynolds has the sort of line-drive stroke that's suited for a high BABIP and has done a better job elevating overall this year, resulting in more power.
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The smallest things can make the biggest difference to a player's performance, and in Willy Adames' case, that small thing seems to have been getting out of Tampa. Since joining the Brewers, he's batting .294 with 13 homers and a .925 OPS, his strikeout rate dropping from 35.9 to 25.4 percent. It wouldn't mean much on its own, but it turns out the batter's eye was never so friendly to him in Tampa, which is backed up by him hitting .304 with a .896 OPS on the road in his career compared to .217 and .644 OPS at home. They're all road games now, and at only 25, he has his whole career ahead of him still.
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Patrick Sandoval to the moon, y'all. With another 20-swinging-stirike effort this weekend, his rate is up to 16.4 percent, which would rank tops among all qualifiers (worth noting that Jacob deGrom is himself not a qualifier). His slider and especially his changeup are both looking like elite pitches at this point, and it looks like the ceiling could be sky high if he can get the walks under control. Shoot, even as they are, he has a 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 since joining the rotation in mid-May. Pretty good for a pitcher who wasn't so much on the prospect radar coming up through the minors.
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Jonathan India's numbers since the start of June basically tell the story. He's batting .308 (60 for 198) with seven homers, 14 doubles, five stolen bases and a .929 OPS during that time. More than anything, though, it's the .442 on-base percentage that stands out. Maybe the two-month outburst is largely BABIP-driven, maybe his power output is still suboptimal, but it's clear by now that he has an uncanny knack for getting on base, just as he showed in the minors. It'll keep him useful regardless of everything else, though I'd still bet on him tapping into more power as he ages.
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Prospects who've gained the most value
Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees
A/A+: .310 BA (268 AB), 17 HR, 23 SB, 1.074 OPS, 58 BB, 63 K
Volpe didn't impress much as an 18-year-old in Rookie ball two years ago, but he has made serious inroads in his first year of full-season ball, showing better-than-expected power and excellent on-base skills. His numbers have hardly suffered with the move up to high Class A, and most every major prospect publication views him as a top-100 guy now when he was just a footnote in the Yankees organization at the start of the year.
Jose Miranda, 3B, Twins
AA/AAA: .347 BA (317 AB), 22 HR, 1.022 OPS, 30 BB, 48 K
Though considered a bat-first prospect already, the production wasn't loud enough for Miranda to register on most rank lists at the start of the year. But it is now. The cousin of Lin-Manuel Miranda has resolved not to throw away his shot, making the necessary adjustments to unlock his power this year. Specifically, he has developed a better concept of which pitches he can drive and which he should lay off. The results have been staggering and have only gotten better with his move up to Triple-A.
Justin Foscue, 2B, Rangers
Rookie/A+: .284 BA (109 AB), 12 HR, 1.094 OPS, 10 BB, 36 K
Considered a reach when the Rangers drafted him 14th overall last year, the rub on Foscue was that he might not put the ball over the fence enough to make it as a bat-first middle infielder. That thinking has changed, though, now that he's hit 12 home runs in just 29 games. There has been some tradeoff with the contact rate, which would suggest the 22-year-old isn't just a hop, skip and a jump away from the majors. But the offensive potential would appear to make him a true dynasty asset rather than an also-ran from last year's draft class.
Glenn Otto, SP, Rangers
AA/AAA: 7-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 80.2 IP, 20 BB, 120 K
His engines have cooled a bit since his move up to Triple-A, but there wasn't a pitcher who ran hotter than Otto for the first 2 1/2 months of the minor-league season. He put together five double-digit strikeout efforts at Double-A, including two with 14 strikeouts. Pretty good for a guy who seemed destined for a relief role at the start of the year, having lost too much time to injuries to develop the third pitch or the control needed for more. He's checked off both those boxes now, though, and only upped his profile by being included in the Yankees' deal for Joey Gallo.
Orelvis Martinez, SS, Blue Jays
A: .279 BA (283 AB), 19 HR, 22 2B, .942 OPS, 33 BB, 85 K
Martinez got some attention as a 17-year-old two years ago, but it's impossible to tell with a player that young just how things are going to break. The now-19-year-old gave us a pretty good indication in July, though, homering 10 times during a 10-game stretch. He produces exit velocities that are especially impressive for a player his age, so the power tool is shaping up to be a significant one. And obviously, there's still time for him to develop the other tools.
It's been too long for us to continue behaving as if everything is hunky-dory for the 26-year-old former MVP, even in a dynasty context. Sure, he's still young. Yes, he's battled a myriad of injuries since taking home the hardware in 2019. Yes, with all the tweaking of his mechanics during that time, it's possible his struggles are self-inflicted. I can get on board with the idea he represents a buy-low opportunity. But the bottom line is he feels like a roll of the dice now rather than one of the dozen or so super stud hitters he was still regarded to be prior to this season.
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As with Bellinger, Gleyber Torres' struggles date back to last year, which means he's gotten an abnormally long leash in dynasty or otherwise. The reasons why are numerous. He's only 24 and is a former top prospect who made an easy transition to the majors in 2018 and 2019. Most of all, none of the usual underlying numbers offer a clear explanation for Torres' struggles, making it sort of like Jose Ramirez's near year-long disappearance at the plate. But Torres' comparatively moderate ceiling means the wait has to end at some point, and Ramirez's case was so unusual that it's hard to believe lightning would strike twice.
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I know. I know! You're probably thinking these guys have all been sinking for a while now, but remember the context here is a dynasty league, where patience is the expectation, especially for those who've demonstrated early-round potential in the past. Plus, Chris Paddack had that eight-start stretch in July and August when he looked like he might be getting back on track, picking up some rpm on his fastball and showing some swing-and-miss potential again. It's been all downhill since then, though. What seemed like an ace-in-the-making two years ago is suddenly looking like a lost cause.
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Those who invested in Cavan Biggio two years ago based on some interesting minor-league numbers were patting themselves on the back when he debuted with 17 homers, 14 steals and 71 walks in just 100 games, and his numbers didn't drop off so severely last year. But according to Statcast, he was one of the biggest overachievers in 2020, and it looked like he could be one of the biggest casualties of the new baseball this year given his low quality of contact. It seems to have played out that way, and to add insult to injury, he's not running much either. His career prospects are dimming with so many infielders coming up the Blue Jays pipeline.
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So many were hoping for a step forward from Alec Bohm in his first full big-league season after he looked so polished as a call-up last year. Instead, his strikeout rate has gone up, and he's put even more balls on the ground. Suddenly, he's further than ever from making good on his most optimistic power production. There's still a chance for the 25-year-old to develop into an all-around good hitter, but he's going to be more of a project than we were led to believe. And if he's not contributing much in the meantime, it'll be harder to wait him out in dynasty.
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