Average Draft Position is a good guide for you to study in preparation for your Draft Day. But by no means should it be something you follow as a script. That's an easy way for you to ruin your Fantasy roster.
You want to use the ADP data on CBS Sports or whatever site you play on as a way to gauge when certain players might be coming off the board. But keep in mind that's just an estimate and not necessarily a guarantee. If you want to draft a certain player in a certain spot, don't wait because the ADP says he's going later -- go get your guy.
We're going to break down the ADP data on CBS Sports every Monday until the first week of the regular season. Each week we'll track player movement and show you what players at each position are good values, and others you might want to avoid. This will also be the place to get your preseason recaps from the weekend, and we'll tie that into any ADP adjustments as well.
To start, here is what the ADP data looks like following the first weekend in August. A lot will change once the majority of drafts take place later this month, but you can gain an edge now if you know what range players are being selected in other leagues.
Editor's note: The CBS Sports Average Draft Position data takes into account all drafts and all formats, including mock drafts.
Top 12 overall
Here is what the top 12 overall picks look like as of Aug. 7:
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
3. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN
4. Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
5. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
6. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
7. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
8. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
9. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
10. Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
11. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
12. Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
I expect the top four picks in a one-quarterback league to be locked in, in some order, with Jefferson, McCaffrey, Chase and Ekeler. For me, the order in PPR is Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey and Ekeler.
Robinson's ADP should rise, and I expect him to be drafted ahead of Chubb and Barkley. As you can see, there's no Jonathan Taylor in Round 1, and he's currently the No. 16 player off the board at RB7. If Taylor and the Colts can make amends, Taylor could find himself back in Round 1.
Cooper Kupp (hamstring) is also absent from Round 1, which is a surprise, and he's at No. 14 overall as WR4. When healthy, you can argue that Kupp is a top-five overall pick in PPR. I also expect Hill's ADP to rise, and Stefon Diggs (No. 19 overall at WR6) should be drafted in Round 1.
I don't like Mahomes and Hurts in Round 1 in a one-quarterback league, and Josh Allen (No. 13 overall as QB3) is also being drafted too soon. I'd rather see Tony Pollard (No. 17 overall at RB8) as a first-round pick. And Josh Jacobs (No. 18 overall at RB9) could also be a first-round pick if he ends his holdout with the Raiders sooner rather than later.
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Here is what the top 12 quarterbacks look like as of Aug. 7:
1. Patrick Mahomes, KC (No. 6 overall)
2. Jalen Hurts, PHI (No. 12 overall)
3. Josh Allen, BUF (No. 13 overall)
4. Joe Burrow, CIN (No. 25 overall)
5. Lamar Jackson, BAL (No. 26 overall)
6. Justin Herbert, LAC (No. 31 overall)
7. Justin Fields, CHI (No. 35 overall)
8. Trevor Lawrence, JAC (No. 45 overall)
9. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ (No. 62 overall)
10. Deshaun Watson, CLE (No. 73 overall)
11. Kirk Cousins, MIN (No. 85 overall)
12. Dak Prescott, DAL (No. 93 overall)
I don't have a problem with the top eight quarterbacks, although the order is a little funky. My rankings, for now, are Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Fields, Burrow, Herbert and Lawrence. I constantly struggle with how to rank Fields, Burrow and Herbert, and I'm considering moving Herbert to QB5 because I love his setup this season with the addition of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and rookie receiver Quentin Johnston.
Burrow (calf) could end up as a value pick if he slides because of his injury. However, if he stays at No. 25 overall as QB4 then he will likely end up as a bust candidate because that's too soon to draft him.
Once we get past the top-eight quarterbacks then I start to cringe if Rodgers is really getting drafted as QB9 in Round 6. I'm not drafting him as a top-10 quarterback this season, and he should be treated as a high-end backup in all leagues. His move to the Jets is a positive one, but I still don't want to rely on him as my No. 1 quarterback this year.
Instead, two quarterbacks I like better than Rodgers, Watson, Cousins and Prescott are Tua Tagovailoa (QB13) and Anthony Richardson (QB15). Tagovailoa has top-10 upside if he can stay healthy this season, and Richardson could be amazing if he starts the majority of the season for the Colts.
Since 2010, there have been 16 times when a quarterback has rushed for at least 700 yards. Of those 16 times, only Daniel Jones last season was below 20 Fantasy points per game (he scored 19.9). And two rookies accomplished that feat with Robert Griffin III in 2012 and Cam Newton in 2011. We expect Richardson to potentially run for 1,000 yards, so he's currently a steal in Round 10. I would consider drafting Richardson as early as Round 7 in all one-quarterback leagues.
Here is what the top 24 running backs look like as of Aug. 7:
1. Christian McCaffrey, SF (No. 2 overall)
2. Austin Ekeler, LAC (No. 4 overall)
3. Nick Chubb, CLE (No. 5 overall)
4. Saquon Barkley, NYG (No. 7 overall)
5. Bijan Robinson, ATL (No. 9 overall)
6. Derrick Henry, TEN (No. 10 overall)
7. Jonathan Taylor, IND (No. 16 overall)
8. Tony Pollard, DAL (No. 17 overall)
9. Josh Jacobs, LV (No. 18 overall)
10. Najee Harris, PIT (No. 24 overall)
11. Joe Mixon, CIN (No. 27 overall)
12. Breece Hall, NYJ (No. 28 overall)
13. Travis Etienne, JAC (No. 30 overall)
14. Dameon Pierce, HOU (No. 32 overall)
15. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (No. 33 overall)
16. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (No. 34 overall)
17. Aaron Jones, GB (No. 37 overall)
18. Alexander Mattison, MIN (No. 38 overall)
19. Kenneth Walker III, SEA (No. 39 overall)
20. J.K. Dobbins, BAL (No. 47 overall)
21. Miles Sanders, CAR (No. 48 overall)
22. James Conner, ARI (No. 50 overall)
23. Cam Akers, LAR (No. 54 overall)
24. David Montgomery, DET (No. 57 overall)
There are a lot of things to love about this list, as well as some things that make me cringe. I love Stevenson as RB15, Gibbs as RB16, Dobbins as RB20 and Conner as RB22. All of these players are being drafted at great value, and I expect Stevenson (barring any significant company added in New England) and Gibbs to be top-12 running backs in PPR this year.
Dobbins should see his ADP rise once he's off the PUP list, which likely ties into his contract. And Conner could be a steal in Round 5 as the main offensive threat for the Cardinals this year.
The things I dislike about this list include Henry being drafted in Round 1, especially ahead of Pollard. I also don't like Harris at the end of Round 2, especially ahead of Stevenson and Gibbs. And I don't like Hall being drafted as RB12 at No. 28 overall.
Henry should be drafted in Round 2 this season in PPR, and I would rather have Taylor and Jacobs over Henry, along with Pollard, if their contract situations are settled before Week 1. I don't mind drafting Harris in Round 3, but I would rather have Stevenson and Gibbs in PPR since I expect both to offer more upside in their roles.
And Hall makes me nervous coming back from his torn ACL. The history of running backs in their first season off a torn ACL isn't good, and we know Hall could get company from Dalvin Cook in the near future if he signs with the Jets.
Looking beyond Montgomery, some running backs I would draft higher than ADP include Rachaad White (RB26 at No. 61 overall), Javonte Williams (RB30 at No. 70 overall), James Cook (RB31 at No. 78 overall) and Alvin Kamara (RB32 at No. 79 overall). Of these guys, you can expect Kamara's ADP to likely rise the most now that he's just facing a three-game suspension to open the season. I would draft him as early as Round 5.
White has the chance for a big sophomore season as the lead running back in Tampa Bay, and I expect Cook to have a breakout campaign as the No. 1 running back in Buffalo. Both are breakout candidates for me this year.
I think the value for Williams at No. 70 overall is great, but I'm still skeptical about drafting him this season. As with Hall, Williams is coming back from a torn ACL suffered last season, and he could struggle to produce this year given the track record of running backs returning from that injury.
Here is what the top 24 wide receivers look like as of Aug. 7:
1. Justin Jefferson, MIN (No. 1 overall)
2. Ja'Marr Chase, CIN (No. 3 overall)
3. Tyreek Hill, MIA (No. 11 overall)
4. Cooper Kupp, LAR (No. 14 overall)
5. A.J. Brown, PHI (No. 15 overall)
6. Stefon Diggs, BUF (No. 19 overall)
7. Davante Adams, LV (No. 20 overall)
8. CeeDee Lamb, DAL (No. 21 overall)
9. Jaylen Waddle, MIA (No. 22 overall)
10. Garrett Wilson, NYJ (No. 23 overall)
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (No. 29 overall)
12. DeVonta Smith, PHI (No. 36 overall)
13. Deebo Samuel, SF (No. 40 overall)
14. Chris Olave, NO (No. 41 overall)
15. Tee Higgins, CIN (No. 43 overall)
16. Calvin Ridley, JAC (No. 46 overall)
17. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN (No. 49 overall)
18. Amari Cooper, CLE (No. 51 overall)
19. Christian Watson, GB (No. 52 overall)
20. D.J. Moore, CHI (No. 53 overall)
21. DK Metcalf, SEA (No. 55 overall)
22. Jerry Jeudy, DEN (No. 56 overall)
23. Keenan Allen, LAC (No. 63 overall)
24. Terry McLaurin, WAS (No. 64 overall)
I don't expect many Fantasy managers to find Diggs at No. 19 overall, and he should be selected as early as No. 9 in PPR. I also don't expect to see St. Brown at No. 29 overall, and I would draft him as early as No. 13 in PPR. He's my WR6 in that format behind Jefferson, Chase, Hill, Kupp and Diggs.
While No. 20 overall seems low for Adams, I think that's the perfect spot for him. I'm worried about Adams, 30, with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over for Derek Carr in Las Vegas, and Garoppolo's injury history makes me concerned for Adams this season.
Smith should be considered a late-second or early-third-round pick, and he likely won't be there at No. 36 overall in PPR. And Olave and Higgins are most likely going to be drafted around No. 30 overall as well in PPR. Also, I'm not drafting Samuel as WR13, and I would rather have Higgins, Olave and Ridley ahead of Samuel, among others. I'm thrilled that Ridley is back and making plays for the Jaguars, and I would draft him as early as Round 3.
In PPR, I would draft Jeudy and Allen in early Round 4, so to see them in late Round 5 or early Round 6 is incredible value if that continues. And I would rather draft both of them over Metcalf, although I do think this is the perfect spot for him now that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has joined Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle.
Two receivers being drafted after McLaurin that I have ranked much higher than this ADP are Chris Godwin (WR34 at No. 88 overall) and Diontae Johnson (WR35 at No. 90 overall). I would be thrilled if they remained at this price on Draft Day in PPR.
While Godwin is getting a significant quarterback downgrade with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask replacing the retired Tom Brady, I still expect Godwin to be a borderline starter in all leagues. I would draft him as early as Round 5 in PPR, and I would take Godwin ahead of Mike Evans, who is being selected as WR29 at No. 76 overall.
We know Johnson struggled last season to find the end zone, but he's still going to remain a target hog in Pittsburgh. I would draft Johnson as early as Round 5 in PPR, and I would take him ahead of George Pickens, who is being selected as WR26 at No. 72 overall. Johnson should have significantly more targets and catches than Pickens this year.
Here is what the top 12 tight ends look like as of Aug. 7:
1. Travis Kelce, KC (No. 8 overall)
2. George Kittle, SF (No. 42 overall)
3. Mark Andrews, BAL (No. 44 overall)
4. Dallas Goedert, PHI (No. 59 overall)
5. T.J. Hockenson, MIN (No. 60 overall)
6. Kyle Pitts, ATL (No. 68 overall)
7. Darren Waller, NYG (No. 71 overall)
8. Evan Engram, JAC (No. 82 overall)
9. Pat Freiermuth, PIT (No. 84 overall)
10. David Njoku, CLE (No. 98 overall)
11. Cole Kmet, CHI (No. 107 overall)
12. Dalton Kincaid, BUF (No. 116 overall)
Let's start with the obvious, which is that Kittle should not be the No. 2 tight end off the board behind Kelce. Andrews is the No. 2 tight end, and he should be drafted in early Round 3 in all leagues.
Now, you can debate the No. 3 tight end this season, and there are cases to be made for Kittle, Goedert, Hockenson, Pitts and Waller. I like Waller the best with his move to the Giants, and I expect him to have a rebound season if he can stay healthy and play the majority of the season. I would draft Waller in Round 5.
I would take Hockenson after Waller, and Hockenson benefits from playing in a high-volume offense in Minnesota. We'll see how much rookie receiver Jordan Addison cuts into Hockenson's targets, but Hockenson should also be selected in Round 5 this season. However, since most analysts have Hockenson as TE3 this season, you will likely see him drafted in Round 4 in most leagues.
My TE5 is Pitts, and I'm hopeful that his third season in the NFL will lead to a breakout campaign. If he's healthy -- and if Desmond Ridder isn't a total disaster -- then Pitts should exceed his ADP here in Round 6.
Goedert is a good value pick at the end of Round 5, and he should have another solid season in 2023. His ceiling might be capped if A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith stay healthy, but if either one gets hurt then Goedert could be a top-three tight end. I have him as TE6.
As for Kittle, he's my TE7, but I would still be thrilled to draft him this season. However, the earliest I would draft Kittle is Round 7, and you can see he's going much sooner than that. When everyone is healthy in San Francisco (McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk), we could see Kittle struggle for consistent targets, and he's a bust candidate if he's the No. 2 tight end off the board in Round 4.
Once you get past Waller, my favorite tight ends to target are Freiermuth, Njoku and Kincaid. All three should be heavily involved in their offenses this season, and I love Kincaid's value in Round 10. He has the chance to be a standout Fantasy option even in his rookie campaign, which is rare for a tight end.
I would not draft Kmet as a starting tight end, and he's a bust candidate at this ADP. Instead, I'd rather have Greg Dulcich (TE15 at No. 126 overall), Dalton Schultz (TE16 at No. 134 overall) and Sam LaPorta (TE19 at No. 166 overall). Dulcich fits the profile of a second-year tight end who is poised for a breakout season, Schultz should be a popular target for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud in Houston and LaPorta, like Kincaid, could be a surprise Fantasy option in his rookie year.