Good morning and welcome to a special edition of Dynasty Download. I'm Heath Cummings, filling in for Chris Towers, with the latest post-draft Dynasty content here at CBS Sports.
In fact, I don't just have the latest content. I've actually got a heads up on content that hasn't even hit the site yet. Today at 11 AM ET, Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and I will be live on YouTube for FFT Dynasty. The three of us and nine other drafters will complete our first post-draft rookie-only draft. You can watch live on our YouTube page.
The draft will go three rounds, so 36 players in total. That works out well for me because I just finished my initial top 40 rookie rankings. I wrote a short blurb on each player in my top 25 and if you scroll to the bottom of the article you'll see my top 40 in PPR, non-PPR, Superflex, and tight end premium leagues. Here, I'd like to go over the biggest risers and fallers from my pre-draft rankings, and I'll give you a glimpse of the top 12 as well.
Rookie Risers and Fallers
Anthony Richardson (Pre: 10, Post: 4)
I wrote before the draft that Richardson's risk was that NFL teams saw him as too much of a project to draft early. The fact that he went No. 4 overall to the Colts assuaged some of those concerns. The fact that he's paired with Nick Sirianni, who spent the last two seasons with Jalen Hurts, highlights the upside for Richardson. Hurts averaged 10 rush attempts per game over the past two seasons and he isn't as athletic as Richardson. As long as Richardson wins the job over Gardner Minshew for Week 1 he will be a top-10 redraft and Dynasty QB. He has QB1 overall upside as soon as his rookie year.
Jonathan Mingo (Pre: NR, Post: 12)
Remember, I only had a top 25 before the draft, so Mingo's 'NR' doesn't mean he was outside of my top 40. I did expect him to be out of the NFL's top 40, but Carolina snagged him with the 39th pick on Friday. Mingo has drawn some comparisons to A.J. Brown, but I don't think those are fair expectations. His top competition for targets right now is Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark and he'll get the first crack at building rapport with Bryce Young. I will not be surprised if Mingo leads all rookie receivers in Fantasy points in 2023.
Michael Wilson (Pre: NR, Post: 19)
Wilson was drafted in Round 3 by the Arizona Cardinals and profiles as their best option to replace DeAndre Hopkins if they're able to complete a trade as the season gets closer. Wilson is an older prospect who struggled to stay healthy at Stanford. He's a well-rounded athlete who could be the best red zone option on the Cardinals at some point.
Kayshon Boutte (Pre: 22, Post: 38)
I'm not sure what is worse, falling all the way to Round 6 or getting drafted by the Patriots. Boutte's stock continues to fall after what was a mediocre final season at LSU. He'll now be fighting for a spot on the roster of a team that does not project to have a prolific passing attack any time soon. If it wasn't for his 2020 season he wouldn't even be in the top 40.
Sean Tucker (Pre: 20, Post: 33)
Despite possessing elite speed and producing as both a rusher and a receiver at Syracuse Tucker went undrafted due to medical concerns. He signed as a UDFA with Tampa Bay and will compete with Chase Edmonds and Ke'Shawn Vaughn for the right to back up Rachaad White. If Tucker is healthy, I wouldn't bet against him displacing White as well, but the lack of draft capital and job security is enough to cause him to plummet.
Zach Evans (Pre: 16, Post: 36)
Evans was another Draft Day faller with medical concerns. He was drafted in Round 6 by the Los Angeles Rams, who also signed Tiyon Evans. Those two rookies will try to unseat Kyren Williams as the backup to Cam Akers. There are enough injury concerns in this entire backfield that they may all be worth a roster spot, but Akers is the only one you can reasonably expect Fantasy relevant production from. Like Tucker, I believe Evans has starter upside, but the risks are significant.
Top 12 rookies
1. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
3. Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
4. Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
6. Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
8. Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
9. C.J. Stroud, QB Houston Texans
10. Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
11. Devon Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
12. Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers
See the rest of the top 40 rookie rankings here.
Coming soon
Our rookie-only mock draft isn't the only new Dynasty content coming, not by a long shot. In the next week, we'll have updated post-draft position rankings for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. There will also be a new trade chart and Dynasty Top 150. Next week we'll have a post-draft Superflex rookie-only mock and the following week we'll get our start-up mocks rolling again.
Remember, you can find all of these things, as well as all of our 2023 Dynasty content, on our Dynasty Landing Page, which will be updated later this week.
Other Dynasty Observations from NFL Draft Weekend
- D'Andre Swift is a Philadelphia Eagle and I am none too excited about it. The Eagles ranked dead last with 61 running back targets last year and 27th with 429 running back opportunities (targets plus carries). Swift has not given us any reason to believe he'll be a true workhorse back and a share of a small pie is worse than a share of a big pie like he had last year in Detroit. My fully updated Dynasty running back rankings are a work in progress, but Swift won't be in my top 25, which seemed impossible a year ago.
- I'm warming back up to Deshaun Watson. He won't be ranked in my top 12 when the QB rankings update is finalized, but the Browns have convinced me they intend to throw more with their trade for Elijah Moore and pick of Cedric Tillman. Now, we just need to see Watson return to form himself. He was dreadful last year, but if that was just about the layoff then he could jump back into the top five discussion.
- Don't shy away from Israel Abanikanda in Round 2 of your rookie draft. He's still an elite athlete with huge upside. He's also now in an above average offense that could be a great running offense. Breece Hall is still rehabbing his ACL, and even when he's 100% it shouldn't surprise anyone if the Jets want a committee backfield in 2023. Abanikanda could have an A.J. Dillon type role on the Jets this year, and he could play well enough to keep it.
- Did Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon dodge landmines? I'm not so sure. I feel less confident that Cook will be a Viking if only because they already re-signed Alexander Mattison. But the Bengals do not have a viable starter behind Mixon right now. It could be they plan on cutting him and signing one of the other veteran running backs available, but none of them are upgrades over Mixon, so they may just have to pay him what he's owed.
- The battle between D'Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson is going to be a fun one to watch in Chicago. I would expect a committee of some sort and I would expect Herbert to be a part of the one-two punch. Who he's sharing with, and whether he's the one or the two, is to be determined. I rank them Herbert, then Johnson, then Foreman for the time being, but there's a very low degree of confidence. Johnson is a Round 3 pick in rookie drafts until we start getting some positive reports.
- Michael Pittman is a Draft Day loser on multiple days of the draft. First, the selection of Anthony Richardson indicates a colossal change in offensive philosophy. I wouldn't be surprised if they're below 500 pass attempts this year. The addition of Josh Downs is only going to make things worse for Pittman as Downs has the ability to earn targets at a rate at least as high as Pittman.
- Irv Smith looks like a short term winner. Just about everyone was mocking a top tight end to the Bengals, but they didn't get one. There's a chance Smith sees 85 targets this year and he should be better on a per-target basis than Hayden Hurst was.
