For as long as I can remember, both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have resided in my top tier in Dynasty. Lamar Jackson was with them for a bit, as was Justin Herbert. There was absolutely talk of including Joe Burrow and/or Kyler Murray at one point or another, but I never got there. I did just add Jalen Hurts after his remarkable 2022 and push to the NFC Championship game.
Tier 2 includes Jackson, Herbert, Burrow and emerging stars Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence... but no Murray. In fact, it's hard to make a clear case for Murray in any tier, and the same goes for Deshaun Watson.
Murray has absolutely shown the ability to produce like a Tier 1 quarterback for half a season, but he's struggled down the stretch multiple times, battling injuries and inefficiency. Now he's entering a 2023 season where he'll have a new coaching staff and quite possibly won't be 100% for the start of Week 1. In a best-case scenario I could see him leap-frogging Tier 2 altogether and joining Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts. But it seems more likely he stays put or falls during the 2023 season, especially if DeAndre Hopkins loses a step in his age 31 season.
Watson has been an enigma in Dynasty Fantasy Football for more than a year. And we didn't get much clarity in his six games of 2022. He was flat-out bad as a passer by virtually any statistic, advance or not, you'd like to cite. But he had four seasons of elite QB play before that. I expect there will be some improvement in Watson's play, and then we'll be left to see how Kevin Stefanski employs him.
Stefanski has been very run-heavy in Cleveland and we only saw one game for Watson in 2022 with more than 31 pass attempts. That could be because of Watson's inefficiency as a passer, but a pass-heavy attack would be unusual for Stefanski. Watson also saw only one rush attempt inside the 10-yard line in those six games. He had at least eight in each of his three full seasons as the Texans' starter.
Like Murray, Watson still has the upside to be a Tier 1 quarterback and may be a Dynasty buy, but he's also far riskier than Murray due to the fact he's a couple of years older and looked so dreadful in limited action this year.
Don't get too caught up with the archetypes you see in the tiers below, especially when it gets to the bottom five tiers. These tiers are based on value to me, not archetypes. That being said, you should elevate "safe" quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins if you play in a Superflex league. The same may be true for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, but I'd like to see how this offseason plays out before I make that call. They may not be that safe anymore.
Here are my updated Dynasty Tiers:
