In the first week of April, I released my first list of breakouts, which is easier to compile in April than a list of sleepers or busts. Why? Breakouts are independent of what anyone else thinks about them. A breakout has a consensus ranking of No. 1 overall or No. 100. Sleepers and busts are contingent on someone else's opinion of the player. And that's not the easiest thing to come by in April.
When we get to Fantasy draft season, I'll use ADP and I'll generally find sleepers outside the single-digit rounds and busts inside the top 50 picks. There are exceptions to those rules, but they're nice guidelines. In April, the only reliable ADP available is for Dynasty leagues or Bestball leagues. Instead, I'm going to focus on consensus rankings. I've picked out 12 sleepers who are ranked outside the top 100 in Fantasy Pros PPR consensus rankings as of April 10th. These are the guys the industry as a whole is sleeping on.
Second-year wide receivers were the focal point of my breakout article, but there are a couple whose ranking makes them better sleepers candidates than breakouts. Let's start with them.
Year 2 WR sleepers
Jameson Williams and Romeo Doubs both battled injuries last year and both have enormous upside in 2023. They're both also ranked outside the consensus top 100 with Williams at 107 (WR45) and Doubs at 152 (WR61).
In terms of upside, Williams has the most of any sleeper I'll name today and nearly as much as any receiver in football. While the recovery from his torn ACL stole most of his rookie season, the Lions knew that was a possibility and still took him with the 12th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. That's because Williams possesses elite, 4.3-level, speed and because before he tore his ACL in his junior season at Alabama, Williams had turned 79 catches for 1.572 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 19.9 yards per reception. As good as last year's rookie class was, there's still a chance Williams could be the best of the bunch.
Doubs doesn't have the same upside as Williams, but do you remember the catches he was making in the preseason last year? He followed that up by scoring 15 or more PPR Fantasy points in three of his first eight games in the NFL before an injury cost him a month of the season. The Packers lost Allen Lazard and right now there is very little target competition for Doubs and Christian Watson. If Green Bay doesn't make a significant addition at receiver in the next couple of months then Watson and Doubs could see more than half of Jordan Love's targets, making Watson a great breakout candidate and Doubs one of the most exciting wide receivers available in the double-digit rounds.
Here are six more traditional sleepers, with four super-sleepers (ranked outside the top 200) at the bottom of the article:
Perine had two games with 20 touches last year, and he averaged more than 20 FPPG in those two games. It's possible he is the Broncos feature back at the beginning of the season due to Javonte Williams' recovery from a complicated knee injury. This situation could be like J.K. Dobbins' last year and Perine could be the starter for much longer than people envision it. He could justify his ADP even if Williams is ready for Week 1 because Williams won't receive a feature role this season, at least not until late. If Williams begins the year on the PUP, we'll see Perine's ADP soar into Round 4 in the last week or two of draft season.
| ||||||||||||||||
In the first three weeks after he joined the Dolphins, Jeff Wilson was RB11 per game in PPR with 266 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. After battling injuries for a few weeks he was RB27 over the final three weeks of the season with 192 yards from scrimmage and one score. Either of those would crush his current ranking. His ranking should jump significantly if the Dolphins don't add another running back.
| ||||||||||||||||
The main case against Wilson is that Raheem Mostert was hurt for Wilson's best games. The truth is they're both high-upside weekly backs with extensive injury histories, which is why they're ranked outside the top 100. But they're both high-end flexes at worst when they're healthy. Mostert averaged nearly 10 FPPG after Wilson joined the team and that includes two games where he played less than 40% of the offensive snaps. Both Wilson and Mostert are flexes when they're both healthy and either looks like a top-20 back when the other is hurt.
| ||||||||||||||||
There is not a whole lot to say about Michael Thomas. We know he has elite upside. We know he is staying in New Orleans with Derek Carr. We have no idea how healthy he is or how many games he will play. Still, a player with his upside is a top 100 player unless we have confirmed they are no longer the same guy or they will miss time. We've confirmed neither with Thomas.
| ||||||||||||||||
Osborn caught 25 passes for 350 yards and two touchdowns in the final four games of 2022. The Vikings cut Adam Thielen and have not added a significant wide receiver to replace Thielen. As of now, we should project Osborn as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Vikings, what we don't know is whether he can be the number two target earner, with T.J. Hockenson there. If Osborn does earn more targets than Hockenson, he'll be a steal and likely a top-30 Fantasy wide receiver. But he could beat his consensus ranking even by being third on the Vikings in targets.
| ||||||||||||||||
Dulcich has four games with at least eight targets and five games with double-digit Fantasy points. That would be impressive for any rookie tight end, especially one who only played in 10 games. Sean Payton's offenses have a long history of good tight end production and Dulcich, if he can stay healthy, has the talent to fill that role. If you miss on Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews the next best value may be to wait until the double-digit rounds and select Dulcich.
| ||||||||||||||||
Deep Sleepers
(Consensus Rank: 258)
Howell projects for me as a starter in two-quarterback leagues. His receiver duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson is well above average and the rushing ability he showed in college gives him added upside and floor. Add in Eric Bieniemy as his new offensive coordinator and it's not hard to see top-20 upside. He's currently being ranked as QB27.
(Consensus Rank: 249)
Finding a running back this low is all about finding the guy who could benefit from injury. Well, Williams is only behind Cam Akers for touches in Los Angeles, and Akers hasn't logged a 16 or 17-game season yet in his career. We've also seen Sean McVay be willing to make a change at running back, which means Williams has a chance to force his way onto the field. At the very least, Williams profiles as a better option in the passing game, which should give him a Week 1 role.
(Consensus Rank: 295)
The Bills cut Isaiah McKenzie and Shakir should get a chance to compete for his job. Shakir struggled to get on the field as a rookie, but in the one game he saw more than two targets as a rookie he flashed his blazing speed, catching three passes for 75 yards and a score. If he's Josh Allen's starting slot receiver in August, his consensus ranking will be at least 100 spots higher.
(Consensus Rank: 250)
Smith joins Joe Burrow and the Bengals and fills a void left by Hayden Hurst. If the Bengals don't select a tight end in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, Smith should be in line for 80 to 90 targets and I would expect him to do more with those targets than Hayden Hurst did. Once you get past the tight ends that could be legitimately good, you're looking for tight ends with touchdown upside and playing with Burrow gives Smith instant touchdown upside.
