jonathan-taylor-2-1400-us.jpg
USATSI

If you land the No. 4 pick in a PPR draft, the hope should be that one of Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase happens to fall to you. Assuming they don't, like they didn't in this draft, you're going to have a difficult decision to make as to whether you want to go with a running back, a wide receiver, or Travis Kelce. Kelce offers the biggest positional advantage, but he is also in the twilight of his career and will turn 34 years old in October. Also, picking fourth means there is an excellent chance you can land Mark Andrews in Round 3 if you really want a difference maker at tight end.

The safest pick after Jefferson and Chase is Tyreek Hill. Hill is still in the prime of his career, he plays wide receiver, a position that isn't as prone to injuries as running back, and he proved last year that he is completely quarterback proof. It was one thing to be better with Tua Tagovailoa than he was with Patrick Mahomes, but Hill was even more impressive than that. In Week 6 he tallied 177 yards on 15 targets from Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. Now that Mke White is on the team, Hill should be even safer should something go wrong with Tagovailoa. And if his QB stays healthy, Hill may just be the WR1 this year.

  • Pick-by-pick series: 123456789101112

As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE). 

Here's my squad from the fourth pick: 

1.04: Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
2.09: Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
3.04: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
4.09: Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
5.04: Christian Kirk, WR, JAC
6.09: Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
7.04: Cam Akers, RB, LAR
8.09: Samaje Perine, RB, DEN
9.04: Nico Collins, WR, HOU
10.09: Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
11.04: Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
12.09: Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
13.04 Isaiah Hodgins, WR, NYG
14.09: Israel Abanikanda, RB, NYJ

As you can see, I did take Andrews in Round 3, at least partially because Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts were all gone by then. I strongly considered Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields at the four-five turn, but ultimately was pretty thrilled to pair Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson in Round 10 and Round 11. They both have top-six upside and it would be a real surprise if they both finish outside the top-10. 

This is pretty close to a perfect Hero-RB build for me, as long as Jonathan Taylor is a full-go for Week 1. I have a pair of upside QBs, four of my top-25 wide receivers, and the consensus No. 2 tight end. Nico Collins was a bit of a luxury pick in Round 9, but I do project him to be the No. 1 wide receiver for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans this year. 

The only real bet I'm making (other than betting on Taylor being OK) is on one of the four running backs I took from Round 7-14 being a full-time starter. Thankfully, one of them was my favorite pick in the draft.

Favorite pick
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIN Minnesota • #31
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
69th
RB RNK
26th
PROJ PTS
145.5
SOS
22
ADP
62
2022 Stats
RUYDS
786
REC
13
REYDS
117
TD
7
FPTS/G
9.4
If you only take one running back in the first six rounds you are taking a chance that you will only have one surefire starting running back. Fortunately for me, I found another in Akers. As long as Akers stays healthy, he should dominate running back touches in Los Angeles, much as he did when he was RB10 over the final six weeks of 2022. Akers was the last back available who has top-12 upside without an injury to anyone else, but he won't always be there in Round 7.
Pick I might regret
Projections powered by Sportsline
IND Indianapolis • #28
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
21st
RB RNK
9th
PROJ PTS
216.5
SOS
10
ADP
17
2022 Stats
RUYDS
861
REC
28
REYDS
143
TD
4
FPTS/G
13.3
Taylor is currently on the PUP and maybe kind of holding out at the same time. The team's owner is tweeting about not paying or trading him. This is not a good situation, but it's also going to look like a gift if Taylor shows up Week 1 and plays like himself because it's the only way you would ever find him this late. Still, I will feel pretty silly if Taylor ends up on the NFI list or worse by Week 1.
Make or break player
Projections powered by Sportsline
SF San Francisco • #19
Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
42nd
WR RNK
19th
PROJ PTS
207.8
SOS
1
ADP
41
2022 Stats
REC
56
TAR
94
REYDS
632
TD
5
FPTS/G
13
Samuel is the wild card of all wild cards. He could absolutely be a top-12 wide receiver again but with Brandon Aiyuk. George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey all on the team he could also be a No. 3 receiver like he was in 2022. I am pretty optimistic based on the fact that Samuel dominated targets from Brock Purdy in 2022 and should have positive touchdown regression coming.