Times have changed and the Fantasy Football landscape for 2023 is a lot different than 2022 and even more different than the mid 2010s. What has changed the most is how often we're seeing wide receivers come off the board in the first round and through the first three rounds. In this PPR draft I would have preferred to start my build with wide receivers, but I found more value in the idea of zigging while others zagged.
When both Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard fell to me at No. 12 overall -- two players I have ranked inside my top-12 overall -- I passed on the CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Browns of the world to start my build with two running backs. Funny enough, these were the exact two running backs I landed on when we did this series last month and I had the 1.12.
The reason I'm so high on both Chubb and Pollard is that I feel confident both will have a role in the passing game in 2023 on two offenses that should finish inside the top-12 in scoring. That's the kind of foundation you need. Also, after scooping both up, I was freed up to lean heavily on pass catchers for the rest of my draft and that's exactly the build I went with.
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As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award a point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my squad from the 12th pick:
1.12: Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
2.1: Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
3.12: DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
4.1: Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
5.12: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
6.1: Kyle Pitts TE, ATL
7.12: Michael Pittman, WR, IND
8.1: Eli Moore, WR, CLE
9.12: Kadarius Toney, WR, KC
10.1: Tank Bigsby, RB, JAC
11.12: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, KC
12.1: Geno Smith, QB, SEA
13.12: Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
14.1: Deuce Vaughn, RB, DAL
Anytime I start with a RB-RB build, I'm always worried about how my wide receivers will come out. I couldn't be happier to land Metcalf and Samuel. On a per route basis, both Metcalf and Samuel were among the top-10 receivers in targets per route run. That's the kind of volume I'm looking to chase. There is more competition in Seattle, but Metcalf should make up for a slight downtick in volume by cashing in more of his red zone targets for touchdowns. As for Samuel, Brock Purdy's skill set much better fits how Samuel wins (early) than any other receiver on the 49ers roster.
Burrow returned to practice this week and I have no concerns he'll produce as one of the top-tier quarterbacks in 2023 with more upgrades along the offensive line. Moore and Bigsby are two of my favorite late-round flyers with both the talent and potential roles (Moore as a Samuel-light type player in Cleveland and Bigsby as the goal-line back in Jacksonville). I'm definitely light on running back depth, but hope to make up for it with the receiver depth I got late in this draft.
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Anytime I can get Moore in a draft, I'm a happy camper. Moore had a top-20 overall grade for me (not just offensive players) coming into the draft after winning at all three levels at Ole Miss with a rare skill set that reminded me of a slightly less explosive version of Antonio Brown. His career fizzled a bit with the Jets, but things appear to be back on track with Cleveland, and his preseason role (lined up in the backfield, Samuel light) suggests he could be in for even more volume than I expected. Moore could immediately be a WR2 if the targets are there and Deshaun Watson bounces back. I love the upside and potential floor if he is used in that high volume role.
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The price tag has dropped into a more reasonable place, but as you can see from the raw stats last year, drafting Pitts remains a risk. The talent is obviously there with Pitts, but what can we say for sure about the role? In the preseason, Arthur Smith took Pitts off the field for nearly half of the first-team snaps opting to get on blocking tight ends to impact the run game. If Pitts sees a reduced role from a snap share standpoint, it will be hard for him to produce consistently for Fantasy in a run-first offense with questionable quarterback play. The flip side is that he earns a big target share, specifically in the red zone, Ridder takes that jump and you now have a difference-maker at the shallowest position in Fantasy Football.
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Pollard was my first-round pick, but also my make-or-break player and it's not all that common for me to settle on a high-variance pick in Round 1. I guess that's just what happens when you're picking No. 12 overall. Pollard carries variance because he's never operated in a workhorse role to this point. However, if he can handle it, he's in an incredible position to score Fantasy points. Dallas provides him the blocking, a coach who wants to get more run-centric and Pollard himself has already established his breakaway ability and elusiveness. If everything breaks right, Pollard could be the RB1 overall this season.
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