When everything is right, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson have been two of the best Fantasy quarterbacks of the past decade. But it's hard to say everything is right in Week 13, which significantly lowers both of their floors.
For Jackson, we've seen the lower floor for most of the past two months. He only has one game with multiple touchdowns since Week 13. The loss of Rashod Bateman has hurt Jackson more than we expected, and Mark Andrews isn't living up to expectations either. Jackson himself has been banged up and now has a quad injury to add to his list.
For Watson, the floor is even more obvious. His last game was on Jan. 3, 2021. The only action we saw from him this preseason didn't offer any positives. He attempted five passes and only completed one of them. And he's never played for the Browns or Kevin Stefanski.
The other reason may be less moving, but the Texans have been surprisingly good against quarterbacks this season. Only the Broncos and Eagles have allowed fewer points to the position. It's mostly because the Texans are so bad against the run, which is a great thing for Nick Chubb. Only three quarterbacks have topped 20 Fantasy points against the Texans all season.
Both Jackson and Watson are borderline starters this week. I'd be more likely to roll with them if I was targeting upside, but I wouldn't blame anyone who preferred the floor of Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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300 -- Josh Allen has thrown for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in his past three games against Bill Belichick.
2.6 - Justin Herbert averages 2.6 passing touchdowns per game in five career meetings versus the Raiders. He also has three touchdown passes in each of the past three games versus the Raiders.
29.2 - Fantasy points for Kyler Murray in his first game with DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown. He's back as a must-start option after his Week 13 bye.
121 -- Deshuan Watson is third in league history with 121 combined passing and rushing touchdowns through his first four seasons in the league behind Dan Marino and Josh Allen.
Over the past month, Pickett has taken a step forward, but so far it's only shown up in the yardage totals. He's averaged 11.64 FPPG on yards alone, which means he's two touchdowns away from a must-start week. Unfortunately he's also had zero games with two touchdowns this season. If this level of play continues, I expect that to change sooner rather than later.
White is no safe thing just because he torched the Bears' second-team defense, but the Vikings don't provide a situation that much tougher. The pass defense is better, but still below average about any way you look at it. The Vikings also bring a much better offense than the Bears, which should mean White throws the ball 35-plus times. He's a high-end QB2 with top-10 upside.
We'll have six teams on a bye next week, so we'll need more streamers. Tannehill has been throwing more recently and faces a mediocre Jacksonville defense. Five of the past six quarterbacks to face the Jaguars have scored at least 21 Fantasy points and four of them have topped 25.
We expect Burrow will get Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon for a home game against the Chiefs that has an over/under of 52.5. He and Patrick Mahomes are equally good plays on FanDuel, but Burrow is $1,300 cheaper on DraftKings, which makes him a far better play on that site.
PHI
Philadelphia
• #8
Age: 25
• Experience: 3 yrs.
There are two choices for the top contrarian play at QB. Lamar Jackson has the most overall upside, but Kenny Pickett has the most value upside. He has taken a step forward in the second half that is not reflected in his point totals because his receivers keep dropping touchdowns. As a rule, drops aren't predictive. As long as that holds true, Pickett has some big games coming, and the Falcons defense is a great place to start.
