If you drafted Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, or Cooper Kupp you probably thought you would be free of lineup decisions in at least one position this season. And honesty, after the way Adam Thielen played the first two months of the season, he gave off that same vibe. As we prepare for the Fantasy playoffs that doesn't appear to be the case.
None of the above are must-sit players (well besides Jefferson since he has a bye in Week 13) but none are surefire starters either. For me, Kupp is the riskiest. He has two good games all season and is playing through an ankle injury that was clearly hampering him on Sunday. He projects outside of my top-20 for Week 13 and if we see another single-digit performance, he may not be a top-30 wide receiver in Week 14.
While most people would expect Thielen to be the guy I'm most concerned about, I'm giving him at least one more week with a new regime. He's healthy and the QB has given him all of these targets is healthy, so I'm mostly ignoring last week's blip.
The guy I am surprisingly concerned about is Chase. No, I'm not benching him this week (unless you happen to have three of my top-10 wide receivers), but I'm watching him very closely. He only caught four passes in his first full game with Jake Browning and two of those bounced off of someone else's hands first. As bad as things were for Browning and Bengals in Week 12, they could have been much worse.
As for Jefferson, I don't expect him to be himself, but I will view him as a must-start in Week 14 when he returns and likely in Week 15 no matter what happens in that game. Joshua Dobbs was awful on Monday night, but he's a better passer than Bryce Young or Browning right now. Once Jefferson is healthy, he's in my lineup.
- Heath's Week 13 Previews: | | |
You can find more in my weekly projections over at SportsLine. Now here is the rest of the Week 13 WR Preview:
Week 13 WR Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 13 at this time. Here's what it means:
Chris Olave WR
NO New Orleans • #12
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Rashid Shaheed is also expected to be out. A.T. Perry could be the teams No. 1 wide receiver. Both Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill are top-12 tight ends.
DeVante Parker would be the Patriots No. 1 wide receiver if Douglas is out.
Numbers to Know
- 149.9 -- Keenan Allen is on pace for 149.9 receptions this season. The NFL record is 149. The Chargers may not have much else to play for down the stretch.
- 21 -- Adam Thielen saw 21 targets in the two weeks before he saw three in Week 12. I'm going back to Thielen for at least one more game.
- 6.8 -- Cooper Kupp has not scored more than 6.8 PPR Fantasy points in a game since Week 6.
- 31.3% -- Rashee Rice's 31.3% target share was the highest of his career. He's trending towards must-start.
- 5 -- Jayden Reed has five rush attempts in his last two games. That gives him a little extra floor and upside.
- 2.58 -- Nico Collins' 2.58 YPRR is seventh amongst wide receivers, trailing only Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
- 48% -- Calvin Ridley has been targeted on 48% of Trevor Lawrence's throws into the end zone. Only Courtland Sutton has a higher rate.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
If Douglas is cleared to play in Week 13 I will rank him as a borderline top-25 wide receiver this week and rest of season. If he's not, DeVante Parker is pretty interesting in deeper leagues. Douglas' 27% TPRR ranks top-10 on the season.
WAS Washington • #4
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.
There is no clear pecking order for the Commanders, but with a matchup against the high-flying Dolphins there may be enough targets for everyone to eat. Samuel has five games this season with at least six targets. He's scored at least 12 PPR Fantasy points in three of them and just hung 25 on the Cowboys.
CAR Carolina • #15
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
Mingo has seen 19 targets in his last three games and has a very good matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Expect somewhere around 10 PPR Fantasy points with an upside around 16.
BAL Baltimore • #3
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Beckham's 41.4% TPRR leads the NFL and ranks sixth in the NFL over the past two weeks. If the bye week allowed him to get healthy he could be a full-time player and a must-start receiver in the Fantasy playoffs.
Keenan Allen WR
LAC L.A. Chargers • #13
Age: 31 • Experience: 11 year
Tyreek Hill is the only wide receiver I have projected to score more FanDuel points than Allen this week and Hill is $1,000 more. There is no safer cash game in Fantasy right now as Allen has three straight games with at least 10 targets and at least 17 FanDuel points. He's scored in the single digits just once all season.
Nico Collins WR
HOU Houston • #12
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Collins was a great play last week because his teammate Tank Dell was so much more popular. This week it's because he's nearly the same price as Jaylen Waddle, who will be a staple due to a great matchup with Washington. The upside and floor is similar with these two players, but the roster rate will strongly favor Waddle due to the matchup and pedigree.
My full set of Week 13 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 13. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available at Sportsline.