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USATSI

Fantasy Football analysts will tell you every season that you can wait on quarterback and still get pretty good production from the position, and if you look at the rankings after Week 3, it looks like that's the case yet again. Late-round or undrafted quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence rank among the top 12 at the position through Week 3, with the likes of Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and even Joe Flacco ranking in the top 16 so far. Late-round QB doesn't look so bad right now.

But I think that's the exact opposite conclusion to draw right now. I think the early-round QB strategy looks better than ever right now. Tagovailoa has one massive game and two others with fewer than 17 points in six-point-per-pass TD scoring; Wentz has mostly been a compiler, and he fell flat on his face in Week 3 against a good defense; similarly, Goff has just one game with more than 20 points so far. Of those four surprises in the top 12, only Trevor Lawrence, entering his second season and with a massively upgraded receiving corps, looks like he might be legit.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is hurt, with a murky timetable, Joe Burrow can't stay off his back, Matthew Stafford has looked rusty after being limited in camp with an elbow issue, and Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been a disaster, so the middle-class of quarterbacks hasn't really gotten the job done either. Trey Lance is done for the season and Justin Fields is running an offense straight out of a Knute Rockne playbook, so even our hoped-for breakout candidates have flopped.

Some of those players have better days ahead of them, but in looking at my QB rankings for Week 4, I think there is a tier or two emerging from the pack right now. It's Josh Allen at the top, with Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts in Tier 2, and then there's everyone else -- at least until Justin Herbert proves this rib injury is behind him, Kyler Murray gets DeAndre Hopkins back, and Brady's weapons get healthy. 

Here are my full QB rankings for Week 4. 

  1. Josh Allen @BAL
  2. Lamar Jackson vs. BUF
  3. Jalen Hurts vs. JAX
  4. Patrick Mahomes @TB
  5. Kyler Murray @CAR
  6. Tom Brady vs. KC
  7. Justin Herbert @HOU
  8. Kirk Cousins @NO
  9. Derek Carr vs. DEN
  10. Trevor Lawrence @PHI
  11. Matthew Stafford @SF
  12. Aaron Rodgers vs. NE
  13. Russell Wilson @LV
  14. Marcus Mariota vs. CLE
  15. Carson Wentz @DAL
  16. Jared Goff vs. SEA
  17. Daniel Jones vs. CHI
  18. Cooper Rush vs. WAS
  19. Justin Fields @NYG
  20. Mitchell Trubisky vs. NYJ
  21. Zach Wilson @PIT
  22. Jacoby Brissett @ATL
  23. Andy Dalton vs. MIN
  24. Jimmy Garoppolo vs. LAR
  25. Matt Ryan vs. TEN
  26. Ryan Tannehill @IND
  27. Baker Mayfield vs. ARI
  28. Geno Smith @DET
  29. Davis Mills vs. LAC
  30. Brian Hoyer @GB