Each week, I break down the DFS slate over at SportsLine where I provide not just my tiered DFS rankings and optimal lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel but also key DFS value plays that cover a few different categories. I go through my core values, which are at the center of my lineup-building strategy each week; my wide range of outcome values, which bring massive point-per-dollar potential but also high volatility; and my value plug-ins, which project to keep your lineup on pace for a strong score and are viable if you need the savings to pay up for expensive conviction plays.
You can find all those picks with analysis in my Week 6 NFL DFS Values column at SportsLine, but here's one player that falls into the "core value" category for this week.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,600 on FanDuel
Early in the season (and during Jacksonville's first-team preseason action), Kirk was coming off of the field during two-receiver sets. Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley were the two-receiver set players to begin the season. Kirk took that role over from Jones when his teammate missed Week 3.
In Week 5, Jones returned to the lineup, but Kirk stayed on the field during two-receiver sets. That's an extremely bullish signal for Kirk's long-term value.
In the short-term, Kirk seems guaranteed to be on the field for nearly every snap, as Jones aggravated his knee injury in Week 5. Calvin Ridley torched Indianapolis in Week 1, but we've seen things shift in Jacksonville's target distribution in the month that has followed that game.
Christian Kirk over the past month:— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2023
- 27% target share
- 30% first-read target share, per @FantasyPtsData
- WR13 in Fantasy (17.1 PPR points per game)
The Colts have allowed 140+ yards to a WR in 3 of 4 games over the past month. I have no idea why Kirk is so cheap in DFS.
For what it's worth, Ridley's first-read target share rebounded in Week 5, and he is also a totally viable Week 6 DFS play. Ridley is who Trevor Lawrence has targeted at the highest rate when facing Cover-3, and no defense uses more Cover-3 than Indianapolis. But the majority of that came in Week 1. Kirk has out-targeted Ridley vs. Cover-3 over the past month. I'll have exposure to both receivers this weekend, but Kirk is the value who will be at the core of my cash game builds.
Another player I'm especially high on comes from the same game, which you can find in my DFS Values column for Week 6. Additionally, you should also check out more of my key plays in my Week 6 NFL DFS Helper, where I break each position into tiers for DraftKings and FanDuel, then provide my optimal lineups for each site.