The culmination of another NFL season comes this Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl, and if you're reading this now you probably haven't enjoyed the little hiatus from the end of the Fantasy Football season until now. You want some action and we're going to give you that in the form of player prop picks. There are multiple ways to get in on the action of the big game, including more popular options like DFS, but my favorite is and will always be the prop picks. From my experience, the market inefficiencies are drastically higher with player prop lines than any other line -- even if that gap narrows just a bit on a single-game slate like the Super Bowl.
One of the most important things I always preach when making player prop bets is to follow a narrative. If you think this game is going to go under the total projected points, don't hitch your saddle to a slew of overs no matter how much you enjoy watching players like A.J. Brown make plays. Also, if you think one team is going to win this one in a blowout, be careful taking that team's overs on passing and receiving props -- anyone who placed overs on Brown or Jalen Hurts' passing yards in the NFC Championship game last week got a dose of that reality when Philadelphia took the air out of the ball because they had a massive lead.
Here are my favorite player prop picks for the Super Bowl.
All odds are posted from Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday afternoon.
Patrick Mahomes longest completion over 37.5 yards
49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk recently said something very interesting when discussing the Eagles-Chiefs matchup. To paraphrase, he said the 49ers found some things with the Eagles defense that they felt they could exploit before the Brock Purdy injury happened. As someone who runs a New York Giants podcast that at its core analyzes All-22 coaches film and has now watched this Eagles defense three times on tape, I think I know what Aiyuk was hinting at. The Eagles cornerbacks play an especially aggressive brand of coverage and technique on the outside. You'll often see Darius Slay and James Bradberry positioned multiple yards off the ball but with their backs to the sideline and feet positioned in toward the middle of the field. More than a handful of times against the Giants, Bradberry specifically fell victim to double moves (Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton) but the ball never came their way. Mahomes is going to see the Eagles' susceptibility to double moves on the outside, specifically matched up against Bradberry, and he is going to connect on at least one of those plays -- and it will likely go for longer than 38 yards. This is my favorite player prop in the game.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
There was an error processing your subscription.
Travis Kelce over 79.5 receiving yards
All last week we heard about how much attention the Bengals were going to pay to Kelce and how they were going to essentially Belichick him (i.e. take one player out of the game at all costs). The Bengals reportedly had posters of Kelce posted in and around the locker room to further hammer home the point of always knowing where he was once they got on the field. Kelce also entered the AFC Championship Game with a questionable tag and a back injury. Well, all that was for nothing. Kelce finished with seven receptions for 78 yards. And while his total is over that mark, Kelce should have more success against an Eagles defense that isn't designed to take away one player. In fact, the Jonathon Gannon-led Eagles defense is based on principles of the Vic Fangio defense and that's a style of defense Kelce can and has found success against. He will again find that success on Sunday.
Miles Sanders over 59.5 rushing yards
This player prop started at 54.5 rushing yards when it was first released, then it jumped to 57.5 by Friday and now it's just under 60. I would take the prop all the way up to 60 rushing yards so get in on this now if you're going to play it -- though I doubt it rises much higher than this. I like this prop so much because it's deflated by recency bias. Sure we've seen a lot of Boston Scott and Ken Gainwell lately, but that has more to do with the fact that the Eagles have blown out their last two opponents than anything else. In a closer game, Sanders is likely to reach the 15-carry mark -- or close -- and we're talking about a running back who averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season and is playing behind the best offensive line in the NFL by far. Sanders averaged 75 yards rushing this season so he should be able to top the 60-yard mark as long as the Eagles don't fall behind by multiple scores early.
Jalen Hurts over 49.5 rushing yards
One of my best prop plays from the championship round was Hurts under 44.5 rushing yards. That play was matchup specific. The 49ers defense was stingy against quarterbacks on the ground, and I expected the Eagles to jump out to a big lead. Why run Hurts if you're winning by multiple scores? Since I'm expecting a competitive game against the Chiefs, I believe the Eagles will ramp things up with a few designed runs we haven't seen on tape since earlier this season. I also think the matchup works in Hurts' favor because Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz and play man coverage. Hurts will see these man coverage looks, take the open B gap, tuck it and pick up the first down on multiple occasions.