There is a logjam in the top 12 in my most recent Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen are still the consensus top three but after that it's a bit of a mess. Since the start of the 2023 season, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Fields have all rotated spots throughout the top 12. Virtually anyone in that group could be QB4 a year from now and I wouldn't be that surprised. Same goes for QB12. And there are a few of them I'll be watching very close in Week 12.. Sure,
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It all starts with Tua Tagovailoa on Black Friday. Tagovailoa has ranked from QB7 to QB12 in my rankings since Week 1, and there are basically three things that have kept him out of the top five. The first is injury concerns. There is not much he can do about that one. The other two are his lack of a longterm contract and his inability in 2023 to produce against the best defenses. Or on the road for that matter.
In Week 12 Tagovalioa is on the road against a great Jets defense. If he lights them up, and then proves to be matchup-proof rest of season against the Cowboys and Ravens, it's quite likely he gets the mega-deal he's waiting for and moves into my top five at QB.
One QB who did get the big contract already is Kyler Murray. But, due to his team's record, his future in Arizona isn't entirely secure. I'll be watching both Murray and Justin Fields closely in Week 12 as they try to play well enough to convince their team to draft other positions. This could be a massive swing in value because both teams will have at least one high pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. If that pick is used to help the situation around Murray and Fields, they could be elite Fantasy QBs for the next half a decade. If that pick is used to replace them, we'll have more questions than answers. They've both got five to six weeks to make their case.
Finally, I will be watching Trevor Lawrence against the Texans. Its no secret that I have been skeptical of Lawrence as an elite Fantasy option and to this point I've mostly been right. But it seemed like we reached a tipping point before last week where a majority of Fantasy analysts agreed with me about Lawrence...and of course Lawrence produced four touchdowns and finished as QB1. Is he starting another heater? Will it last more than a month this time? I'll be watching, you should be too.