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The 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta is set to get underway Thursday morning with the first tee times coming at 8:45 a.m. ET. This tournament has been held since the 1940s, but the Mexico Open 2023 marks only the second time it has been played as part of the PGA Tour. Jon Rahm won that event in 2022 and now, just a few weeks since slipping on the green jacket as the Masters champion, Rahm returns to Vidanta Vallarta to defend his title in this event. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Rahm as the +290 favorite (risk $100 to win $290) in the 2023 Mexico Open odds. Tony Finau, the only other player in the Mexico Open Field who ranks in the top 20 in the world, is next on the PGA odds board at 17-2. Wyndham Clark (21-1), Gary Woodland (32-1), Nicolai Hojgaard (34-1) and Maverick Mcnealy (34-1) are the only other golfers shorter than 35-1. Before locking in any 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner.

In addition, the model included Nick Hardy and Davis Riley in its best bets to win the 2023 Zurich Classic. That bet hit at +4500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned over $1,100. McClure's best bets also included J.T. Poston winning outright at the 2022 John Deere Classic, even though he was listed as a massive 55-1 longshot.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Mexico Open 2023: Finau, a five-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, fails to finish on top of the leaderboard this week at Vidanta Vallarta. Finau secured a T-2 finish at this event last year after shooting a 66 and 63 on the weekend.

However, Finau has failed to crack the top 15 in each of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. He's one of the best iron players on tour, but he's struggled around the green this season. In fact, Finau enters this week's event ranked 78th in strokes gained: around-the-green (.095), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Mexico Open 2023 field.

Another surprise: Robby Shelton, a 65-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. McClure highlights Shelton as a best bet to win outright and to finish in the top 20, which would return +250.

The 27-year old native of Alabama has played 17 PGA events this season and has piled up more than $1.1 million in winnings. He's been a bit of a boom-or-bust candidate as he's recorded eight top-25 finishes, but has also missed five cuts. However, he ranks 25th on the PGA Tour this season in total birdies and 36th in total eagles, so he's a player who can put some low numbers on the board. With few elite players in the field and Shelton getting such long odds, McClure is including him in his 2023 Mexico Open best bets. See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta picks

The model is also targeting three other longshots that are listed higher than 40-1. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's PGA picks here.

So who will win the Mexico Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Mexico Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Mexico Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors and last week's winner at +4500.

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds, field

See the full Mexico Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +290
Tony Finau +850
Wyndham Clark +2100
Gary Woodland +3200
Nicolai Hojgaard +3400
Maverick Mcnealy +3400
Patrick Rodgers +3600
Alex Noren +3700
Taylor Pendrith +4100
Byeong Hun An +4800
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Beau Hossler +5000
Stephan Jaeger +5500
Aaron Rai +5500
Ben Martin +5500
Andrew Putnam +5500
Alex Smalley +5500
S.H. Kim +6500
Robby Shelton +6500
Brandon Wu +6500
Garrick Higgo +6500
Will Gordon +7000
Matt Wallace +7500
Mark Hubbard +7500
Luke List +8500
Lee Hodges +8500
Joseph Bramlett +9000
Lanto Griffin +9000
Patton Kizzire +9000
David Lipsky +9000
Francesco Molinari +9000
Chez Reavie +9000
MJ Daffue +9000
Dylan Wu +9000
Nate Lashley +10000
Cameron Champ +10000
Eric Cole +10000
Harry Hall +10000
Kevin Streelman +11000
Ryan Gerard +11000
Akshay Bhatia +11000
Michael Kim +12000
Vincent Norrman +12000
Peter Malnati +12000
Erik Van Rooyen +13000
Harry Higgs +13000
Austin Eckroat +13000
Andrew Novak +13000
Scott Piercy +15000
Jimmy Walker +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Kevin Chappell +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Adam Long +15000
Lucas Glover +16000
Sean O'Hair +16000
Matthias Schmid +16000
Matthias Schwab +16000
Dylan Frittelli +16000
Doug Ghim +18000
Augusto Nunez +18000
Aaron Baddeley +18000
Ben Taylor +18000
Henrik Norlander +18000
Kevin Tway +21000
Carl Yuan +21000
Brent Grant +22000