By and large, the pitch clock in baseball has been tremendous. The viewing experience has improved tremendously, and the game's pace not only makes it easier to follow along, but I believe it improves play as well. Not only is it forcing viewers to pay attention, but it's keeping players focused as well.
However, there is one problem I have: the games are ending too early in the night! For years, if I were too wired to sleep at the end of the day, I would open my iPad in bed and turn on a west coast baseball game. The baseball game would serve as a sort of lullaby and pull me closer to a place of peace and sleep. Sadly, I can't do that any longer, now most games are over when I need them to be on.
I guess what they say is true. There is no progress without sacrifice.
Well, if Rory needs to recoup some of that money, he should bet the following picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
- Key Trend: The over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings at Yankee Stadium.
- The Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
It's time for me to become an amateur meteorologist once again. No professional sport in this country is impacted by the weather as much as baseball is, and knowing how the weather impacts a game and stadium is a crucial way to make money betting it. The forecast in New York tonight is calling for runs.
Not only is tonight's forecast calling for temperatures in the upper-80s, but the wind will be blowing out to left-center, with low humidity. Balls hit into the air will get a bit more carry than usual, and tonight's pitching matchup plays to our hands a bit as well.
Minnesota's Joe Ryan does a decent job of missing bats and limiting walks, but the majority of contact he allows is the flyball variety. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Ryan's flyball rate against is 42% higher than the league average for starters. That won't work to his benefit tonight, particularly against a Yankees offense with a 121 wRC+ (5th in MLB) and 4.48% HR rate (4th) against righties so far this season.
Jhony Brito starts for the Yankees, and he's only thrown 10 MLB innings, so there isn't nearly enough data to make declarative statements about him. However, his strikeout rate to start hasn't been outstanding, and his 0.90 ERA doesn't quite match up with his 4.02 xFIP to this point. Also, opposing hitters have squared him up solidly when making contact. He hasn't paid the price for it, but given tonight's weather, he could have problems.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: I don't know if the Projection Model knows weather as well as I do, but it's on the same side of the total tonight as we are.
💰 More MLB Picks
Tigers at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) -- Chris Bassitt isn't an overwhelming strikeout pitcher, but he's had a lot of success against the current Tigers roster. Of course, most people have had success striking out this Tigers roster because this Detroit team strikes out a lot!
It's early in the season, but Detroit's strikeout rate of 27.1% is the second-highest in baseball behind San Francisco. The Tigers have swung at 49% of the pitches they've seen (5th highest rate) and made contact only 74.1% (23rd-highest). They've also swung at 36.7% of pitches they've seen outside the zone. So, in short, they swing at damn near everything and, to this point, rarely hit it.
Pirates at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Cardinals Over 5 (-110) -- There are pitchers I've liked to target for years, and Vince Velasquez is one of them. Unfortunately for me, he spent the 2022 season on the White Sox serving as a reliever. He's not anymore, and now he's back to a starting role in Pittsburgh.
So now we fade him as a starter. Velasquez has a career ERA of 4.93 and has made his living as a back-end of the rotation type that teams try to convince themselves they can fix. Well, he's 30. I don't think he's going to be fixed. I think he's a guy with great stuff, yet rarely misses bats, can't find the strike zone, and allows a lot of fly balls. He also rarely works deep into games. All of this works to our benefit, as the Cardinals have the highest hard-hit rate against righties in the league this season, and the Pittsburgh pen has been very busy lately. So when Velasquez leaves around the 5th inning, he'll be replaced by tired arms. All of which means the Cardinals should feast tonight.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: I am lost when it comes to betting the NHL, or at least I used to be. Then I discovered a system. What I do is, I look to see Allie O'Neill put in a pick on SportsLine, and then I make that pick too. It's been remarkably effective.