Most projection systems in 2021 didn't have the Giants even posting a winning record, much less being in playoff contention. Instead, they won 13 of their first 20 games, were 34-20 through May and just never stopped winning. All season they heard questions about whether or not they were real. It wasn't a matter of if they'd "come back to Earth," but when. And they ended up winning a franchise record 107 games. Of course, they had to deal with the 106-win Dodgers in the NLDS and lost that series in five games.
They were already going to face questions, but franchise legend Buster Posey retired while staff ace Kevin Gausman and big trade-deadline pickup Kris Bryant both departed via free agency.
What's in store for 2022? Let's take a look.
Win total projection, odds
- 2021 record: 107-55 (won NL West; lost in NLDS)
- 2022 SportsLine projection: 91-71
- World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +2500
Projected lineup
- Tommy La Stella, 2B
- Brandon Belt, 1B
- Brandon Crawford, SS
- Evan Longoria, 3B
- Joc Pederson, DH
- Mike Yastrzemski, RF
- LaMonte Wade, Jr., LF
- Joey Bart, C
- Steven Duggar, CF
Bench: C Curt Casali, 1B/OF Darin Ruf, IF Wilmer Flores, OF Austin Slater, UT Mauricio Dubón
Crawford at short was the only player to start more than 90 games in one spot last year. This organization with Farhan Zaidi's front office and Gabe Kapler in the dugout has shown the ability to very skillfully platoon and use the depth of the big-league roster. As such, don't expect what's listed above to be the everyday lineup. Flores probably platoons at second with La Stella (a lefty), Slater and Ruf are both righties while Wade, Pederson and Duggar are lefties, so do the math there as well.
Projected rotation
- RHP Logan Webb
- LHP Carlos Rodón
- RHP Anthony DeSclafani
- LHP Alex Wood
- RHP Alex Cobb
Carlos Martínez was a two-time All-Star with the Cardinals as a starter and also had successful stints as a reliever. He's entering his age-30 season as a non-roster invite to spring training now, though, because his last two years were a disaster (4-12, 6.95 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 21 starts). Matthew Boyd has been signed cheaply and is coming off flexor tendon surgery, but he could join the rotation at some point in June or July. Lefty Sammy Long could serve as a spot-start guy like last season, too.
Projected bullpen
Closer: RHP Camilio Doval
Setup: LHP Jake McGee, RHP Tyler Rogers
Middle: RHP Dominic Leone, LHP Jarlín García, RHP Zack Littell, LHP José Alvarez
Long: RHP Jakob Junis, RHP Tyler Beede
Right-hander John Brebbia could also be a factor here, just as Long and/or Martínez could.
And now for five questions about the 2022 Giants.
1. How do they replace Posey?
Gerald Dempsey "Buster" Posey was drafted fifth overall in 2008 by the Giants. He won Rookie of the Year in 2010 and also caught the final out of the Giants' first World Series title since moving to San Francisco. He'd win the MVP in 2012 and again catch the final out of the World Series. In 2014, he finished sixth in MVP voting and the Giants again won a World Series title.
In 2021, Posey made his seventh All-Star team and won his fifth Silver Slugger. The 140 OPS+ was the third-best mark of his career.
And now he's called it a career. The future Hall of Famer will have a statue at Oracle Park someday.
Meanwhile, the Giants are tasking Joey Bart with replacing him. We all know legends can't be replaced from an intangible standpoint, but there's also production that Posey provided. Bart, 25, has hit .239/.299/.321 in 177 MLB plate appearances. He hit .294/.358/.472 in 67 games with Triple-A Sacramento last season.
Bart shouldn't be expected to shoulder the entire load when it comes to replacing Posey's production, but he's a big piece. Is he up to the task?
2. Can they fight off Father Time?
Look, I'm allowed to say this since I have everyone beat here (I'm 43). The Giants are old.
Longoria is 36. Crawford is 35. So is McGee. Belt is almost 34. Cobb is 34. DeSclafani and Wood are over 31.
One of the Giants' strengths is maximizing the productivity of the entire roster, but it only really works if most of the players are healthy and playing well. If a decent chunk of the roster is either hurt or struggling mightily with age-related decline, the mix-and-match method becomes a lot less effective.
Plus, it's not like the Giants have a large number of prospects who will soon be ready to step right in and play well at the big-league level.
It's entirely possible this isn't an issue in 2022, just as it really wasn't an issue in 2021, but you can't keep knocking Father Time on his heels forever. He's undefeated in this war of attrition.
3. Do the Cheat Codes still work?
Let's be very clear here: The phrase "cheat codes" isn't a literal accusation of cheating. Settle down.
No, the reference here is the Giants' ability under the leadership of club president Farhan Zaidi and his entire staff on down to the minors to get the absolute best out of so many different players. Whether it's a young up-and-comer, a veteran journeyman or even unlocking something in Posey and Crawford last season, the Giants of late have been amazing in this department.
In addition to scouting their own players, this requires scouting other teams, putting players in the best possible position to succeed -- note in the potential lineup section how much they platoon, for example -- and everything in between. They are among the best teams in baseball at defensive positioning, which helps their pitchers, for example.
Will it keep working?
There are a decent number of players here that would be question marks on most teams, but there's probably reason for optimism in the hands of the Giants. Many of them are holdovers, but newcomers Pederson, Rodón and Cobb fit the bill here. Boyd is also a guy that seemed like he might be able to broach the "frontline starter" forcefield for years and could never quite get there. He struck out 238 in 185 1/3 innings in 2019, but homers continued to plague him. Once he's fully recovered from the surgery, it's feasible to see the Giants making him into a second-half monster. If you don't believe it, go back to the start of last season and wonder what "Logan Webb, playoff ace" would've sounded like.
4. What will Mr. Doval do for an encore?
Camilio Doval was sent down to the minors in late May, but he came back as a lethal weapon. He struck out four in two scoreless innings on Aug. 12 and then from Sept. 5 to the end of the season, he worked 14 1/3 innings, allowing zero runs on seven hits and three walks. He struck out 20. His filth was on display in the playoffs, too.
We're talking about a guy with a triple-digit fastball and a tight-wipeout slider that sits mid-to-high 80s.
Keep an eye on this one. Doval could well be the most exciting closer in baseball.
5. Was 2021 an aberration?
So many people believe the Giants did a smoke-and-mirrors thing in 2021. Does that include the front office? I only ask because they didn't go to much effort to replace the offensive production of Posey (or even Bryant), nor guard against backslides from any of the aging veterans.
It seems pretty obvious they aren't going to win 107 -- or we'll even say 100-plus -- games again, but most teams that have the best record in baseball and lose in the divisional round of the playoffs are much more aggressive the ensuing offseason in an effort to get over the hump.
The Giants weren't really aggressive.
Is Zaidi just staying on the path he already charted before 2021 and not straying due to the wildly surprising results? If so, that's incredibly disciplined. It'll be fun to watch how everything unfolds with this team in 2022.
