Happy Saturday, all. This could be the second-to-last day of 2022 that we get two baseball games on the same day, so let's take it all in. While we're doing so, it doesn't hurt to make a little extra change on the side. The LCS round has been pretty fruitful for us through five games, thanks in part to players like Bryce Harper, Joe Musgrove and Framber Valdez.
Gotta keep things moving forward now. Let's get to it.
(All lines via Caesars Sportsbook)
Astros-Yankees UNDER 7 runs (-120)
Both games this series have hit the under thus far and Game 2 was nearly way under. The only two Yankees runs scored in part due to Astros pitcher Framber Valdez committing two errors on the same play. If not for that, it looks like the Yankees would've been shut out. A three-run shot was all the scoring for the Astros a day after three solo homers accounted for most of their scoring in Game 1.
Don't mistake this for excuse-making, as we won. The point is, simply, in general, big rallies with teams stringing a bunch of hits together are hard to come by in the playoffs these days, but especially difficult in this series. Gerrit Cole starting for the Yankees is part of that and we'll get to him below.
Cristian Javier gets the ball for the Astros. He didn't allow a single earned run in his last four starts (23 innings). The last time he faced the Yankees in the Bronx, he threw seven no-hit innings and struck out 13. He later faced the Yankees in Minute Maid Park and gave up just one run in five innings.
The Astros had the best bullpen ERA in baseball and, after a day off and not much use in Games 1 and 2, it is fully loaded. The Yankees have their best relievers fresh after the off-day, too, and are in desperation mode.
This will be a low-scoring and well-pitched game.
Gerrit Cole OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-102)
Cole actually has great history against his former team. In 2021, he threw a shutout in addition to an outing with seven strong innings. This past regular season, he faced them once and gave up just one run in seven innings with eight strikeouts.
He was very good or even great in his two ALDS outings, and the second one came with the Yankees facing elimination and needing him to get length to save the bullpen. The season really feels like it's on the line again, and I'm gonna bet he pitches like it.
The Astros are tough to strikeout and it has only happened eight times through the first two games of the series. Cole a different animal than most, though. He'll get to seven strikeouts. He's Gerrit Freaking Cole.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 RBI (+151)
There isn't much data at all when it comes to the starting pitchers vs. hitters in Phillies-Padres NLCS Game 4. That means we're left with gut feelings and I like the way Schwarber looks right now. He's 4 for 10 with two homers this series and has been hitting the ball hard when he isn't getting hits.
If you like another home run, it's +290 for the man with 11 playoff homers in 140 at-bats.
I like the way the bottom of the Phillies' order has looked recently, speaking specifically of Bryson Stott, Jean Segura and Brandon Marsh. That is to say, if you don't wanna get crazy enough to call a home run, the chances for an RBI from the leadoff man are pretty great, in my estimation.
