Josh Hader won the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever of the Year award in 2018, 2019 and 2021. He got off to a historic start in 2022. Then he totally fell apart, was traded and remained broken.
In the span of several weeks, the Padres have gone from a huge question mark to a virtual "game over" graphic with the closer. As they head to Philadelphia for Game 3 of the National League Championship Series, San Diego appears to have put Humpty back together again.
A quick glimpse at how we got here ...
The dominance
Hader was sent to the Brewers from the Astros in the Carlos Gomez trade in 2015. By 2017, he was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and debuted as a reliever that season (he had mostly been a starter in the minors). He was immediately productive, used as a multi-inning weapon, eventually settling into a one-inning closer by last season.
Hader wasn't great in the shortened 2020 season, but still, through 2021, he had racked up a career 2.26 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 0.85 WHIP and 482 strikeouts in 282 1/3 innings. That's an absurd 15.4 K/9. While not the fastest in terms of velocity, Hader's two-seam fastball (or sinker) was routinely named as one of the best pitches in all of baseball. That weird arm angle and approach from the left side, mostly with how long the ball is hidden before its release point, in addition to the high velocity and good command made Hader's sinker so difficult for hitters.
To start 2022, Hader went 19 outings before giving up a run, striking out 28 against six walks in 17 2/3 innings in there and only allowing four hits.
Coincidentally, it was Hader's NLCS opponent, the Phillies, who ended his scoreless streak on June 7. It was his first outing allowing a run in 40 appearances, which tied the MLB record. It was also his first blown save after 32 straight successful saves, the longest active streak at the time.
Simply, at the time, it looked like the most dominant reliever in baseball just had an off night. Turn the page, nothin' to see here, etc.
The decline
After that June 7 outing, things looked back to normal for Hader for a bit. He closed down his next seven save attempts and only allowed one run on five hits in seven innings with 13 strikeouts and two walks. Then came the Fourth of July. Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki hit an inside-the-park homer off the wall in center field and Nico Hoerner followed with a double. Little did anyone know, this was the start of something awful for Hader.
From that game through July 29, Hader would appear in 10 games, during which he allowed 13 runs on 15 hits -- including five home runs. He still struck out 16, but when players made contact, they were crushing him. Opposing hitters slashed .385/.455/.872 against him.
He was then traded to the Padres even though the Brewers were in first place. Many believe money was a factor and it surely was part of the equation, but Brewers president David Stearns almost certainly wouldn't have dealt Hader unless he thought something big was amiss and unfixable.
Things didn't get better with the deal, initially, for Hader. Through his first seven outings with San Diego, there were some clean ones. There were also three meltdowns. In just 4 2/3 innings, he had given up 12 earned runs on 12 hits. He was now having trouble with control, too, walking seven batters and hitting two. He still had eight strikeouts, but he was getting crushed and couldn't consistently throw strikes.
It probably seemed helpless to some observers, at least in the short term. Maybe Hader would need the offseason to fully sort things out and get back on track. Maybe pitchers don't last that long.
The restoration
On Aug. 31, with the Padres clinging to a 2 1/2 game lead for the final NL playoff spot, manager Bob Melvin turned to Hader to hold a one-run lead in the ninth against the Giants. A Thairo Estrada blooper found some open turf for a leadoff single and it looked like bad luck might get to Hader once again. After a decently-struck flyout to center, a passed ball advanced the tying run to second. Another meltdown seemed on the way. Instead, he buckled down with a strikeout and flyout.
Starting with that Aug. 31 outing, Hader closed the year with seven saves in eight tries, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. He struck out 14 and walked two.
It seemed like he was mostly back to being close to himself. I guess. Maybe?
Hader got two grounders and a strikeout to close the Wild Card Series against the Mets, but it was a 6-0 lead he was tasked with protecting. Not exactly high-leverage stuff to build confidence.
Then came Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers. The Padres were down 1-0 in the series and had shown serious resilience as a team. Hader was summoned with two outs and a runner on with a 5-3 lead. He hadn't worked more than one inning since 2020, but Melvin was asking for a four-out save. Hader walked Trayce Thompson and things got murky. If he couldn't get it done, the Padres season was surely over. There's no way they'd recover from blowing this one and trailing 2-0 in the best-of-five series.
Pinch hitter Austin Barnes flew out to deep center, a brief scare for the Padres faithful that the easy out was a game-tying home run, and Hader was left to think about it between innings in the dugout, an unfamiliar position for the pitcher who hadn't gone multiple innings since Aug. 14, 2020.
In the ninth, Hader got a weak flyout from Mookie Betts and struck out Trea Turner. He did give up a booming double to Freddie Freeman before a deep flyout to Will Smith, but the four-out save against the mighty Dodgers was complete.
It was during the Turner at-bat, too, that something started to look familiar.
Sure, 99 at the top of the zone and making a great hitter look overmatched was part of it. But that swagger was back. The confidence. The look of "you can't possibly beat me." Compare how Hader ends with his somewhat tentative finish in that Giants game from Aug. 31 referenced above. It's subtle, but the turn isn't nearly as violent and when the ball is contacted, he's almost sheepish in turning around to see what's coming.
You can see in that Turner strikeout the inner confidence in Hader rising back to previous levels. I often say that the very best players in the majors are confident to the point of being cocky. Obviously there have to be supreme physical tools, but once the mental edge is gone, that's it. Look at Hader in the middle of this past season when he was lost. The stuff was still there. He didn't have velocity decreases or anything. He had just lost himself. At some point, there was a rediscovery and he seems back.
I'm talking The Terminator "I'm back" levels of back.
Since that outing in Dodger Stadium, Hader has appeared in three playoff games. He's faced nine hitters. The first hitter of that nine fouled out to third baseman Manny Machado. The next eight struck out.
It was thought Hader couldn't get more than three outs. He came through with the four-out save against the Dodgers and he was even better in his next outing. It was thought maybe he couldn't pitch on consecutive days -- the Padres specifically told the FS1 broadcast in the NLDS this. Games 3 and 4 in the NLDS were on consecutive days and he struck out all three hitters he faced in Game 4. There were three days of rest between that outing and his Game 2 appearance Wednesday afternoon. He struck out all three hitters he saw there.
His stuff says he's back. His look and swagger sure say it. His performance does. I'm gonna wager heavily his internal confidence does as well.
Josh Hader is back to being a human cheat code. It would behoove the Phillies -- and, should the Padres advance to the World Series, the AL pennant winner -- to have a lead before the ninth inning. Otherwise they're in big trouble.
