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🔥 The Hot Ticket
- The Pick: Rangers (-130)
- Key Trend: The Rangers are 5-1 in their last six road games.
The Rangers have been one of the hottest teams in the majors. Fresh off a win, I expect that to continue when they face off against the Tigers.
It all starts with the offense. The Rangers rank in the top 10 in several offensive categories, including a .271 batting average (first in the MLB), 321 RBIs (second), a .339 on-base percentage (second), 498 hits (third) and 70 home runs (ninth). Texas utilized the long ball in order to jump all over the Tigers in the opening game of the series on Monday when star shortstop Corey Seager slugged a three-run homer.
Tigers starting pitcher Alex Faedo owns a 4.15 ERA across four starts thus far in 2023. While he hasn't yielded more than three earned runs in any of those outings, Faedo is very vulnerable to the long ball. Faedo has surrendered at least one home run in each of those starts and a grand total of six home runs during that stretch. Considering the rate at which the Rangers take pitchers deep, I'm counting on the Rangers to continue that trend here.
💰 More MLB Picks
The Pick: Under 9 (-110) -- Much like our pal Tom Fornelli has enjoyed fading Jacob deGrom in the past, my bread and butter has often been fading the Guardians. While I'm not exactly picking against them here, I'm not counting on them to score a ton of runs in this spot.
Cleveland currently ranks 28th out of 30 teams in batting average -- a brutal .228. In fact, the only regulars that hit over the .250 mark are star third baseman Jose Ramirez and outfielder Steven Kwan. The Guardians have scored just two or fewer runs in four of their last nine contests. With that kind of sample size, seeing the Guardians put up several runs isn't a very likely outcome.
While the O's were held scoreless on Monday, Baltimore ranks in the middle-of-the-pack in most offensive categories. The Orioles do rank 11th in terms of hitting home runs on the season, with four players slugging at least eight long balls on the season. Still, the Orioles aren't elite offensively. Combine that with the Guardians' offensive ineptitude, and I'm definitely on the under in this one.
Key Trend: The under is 21-5 in the Guardians last 26 games against American League East teams.
Brewers at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-117) -- The Brewers rank seventh in terms of strikeouts as a team. That would usually have me leaning on the over when it comes to a particular starting pitcher's strikeout number. That's not the case today.
Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi is a type of pitcher that leans on the ground ball in order to make his way through a game. In fact, Kikuchi has yielded 31 ground balls over his last five starts. The left-hander has racked up five or fewer strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. Kikuchi has recorded at least six strikeouts in just four of his 10 starts this season. Considering that he doesn't have overpowering stuff, the under is where the money is when it comes to Tuesday's matchup.
Key Trend: Kikuchi has registered five or less strikeouts in five of his last seven starts