Good afternoon gamblers, it's Chris Bengel back with you. The Yankees battled back to give us one win last night, but we're going to do our best to bounce back fully tonight.
Speaking of the Yankees, the Aaron Judge home run chase has been a ton of fun to watch. However, I find myself forgetting that . It's not often that you see a player have a record-setting season and then leave the team he broke the record with. This is certainly going to be quite the year for Judge, off the diamond as well.
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Let's get to tonight's picks!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
- Key Trend: The Dodgers are 40-11 in their last 51 games after allowing two or fewer runs in their previous game
- The Pick: Dodgers (-130)
It's not often that you find the Dodgers at such a low price on the moneyline. Don't overthink this one.
The Dodgers have not have one of their stronger starting pitchers on the mound, but right-hander Michael Grove should do just fine against the Diamondbacks. In his two starts this season, Grove has surrendered just two earned runs in 8 1/3 innings of work. Those two earned runs came in his outing against the Marlins, in which he only yielded five total hits. Grove hasn't gone more than 4 2/3 innings in a start, so he's likely not going to go deep into this contest.
Still, the Dodgers possess a 3.01 bullpen ERA, which is the third-lowest in all of baseball. On the other hand, Diamondback starter Zach Davies is coming off his most brutal start of the season. Davies gave up six earned runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings against the Rockies. In his three starts against the Dodgers this season, he's been tagged for 11 runs and earned losses in two of those outings. Ride with the Dodgers in what is a very favorable line.
💰 The Picks
The Pick: Blue Jays (-110): -- This will be a closely-contested matchup between two of the top teams in the American League. The line is a pick'em and I'm siding with the Blue Jays.
The Rays have dropped four of their last five games, including a 7-2 defeat at the hands of the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Tampa has scored three or fewer runs in three games during that stretch. Their starter tonight, Drew Rasmussen, has had a terrific season as he's accumulated a 10-4 record to go along with a 2.57 ERA. Still, he's has been more vulnerable on the road in 2022 with a 3.22 ERA away from Tropicana Field.
It also doesn't hurt that the Blue Jays possess the second-highest batting average (.261) and the third-most hits in the majors. Meanwhile, Toronto starter Ross Stripling hasn't conceded more than three runs in a single start since May 7 against the Guardians. The veteran right-hander also has only walked more than one batter in one of his last 12 outings, so the Rays are going to have to work to put the ball in play. With the home team playing much better baseball as of late, I'm taking that side all day long.
Key Trend: The Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record
Brewers at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-121) -- It's rare that I find myself wanting to bet the under in a strikeout prop, let alone one involving an ace. However, I believe there's plenty of value in taking the under in Corbin Burnes' strikeout prop on Wednesday.
Despite registering 11 strikeouts in his last outing against the Giants, Burnes hasn't exactly been mowing down hitters left and right of late. The Brewers right-hander has failed to tally seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Burnes has also yielded at least four earned runs in three of his outings during that recent stretch. The Cardinals rank in the top 10 in many offensive categories, so it won't be a huge surprise if they can put the ball in play against Burnes at a frequent rate.
Key Trend: Burnes has recorded six strikeouts or less in three of his last four starts