Good afternoon everyone, it's Chris Bengel with you on back-to-back days. I'll be stepping in for my colleague Tom Fornelli on Tuesday and Wednesdays now that we are entering college football season.
Speaking of which, we actually have meaningful college football this weekend! We've finally made it and won't have to know what it's like not to have football being played on the weekends for the next six months or so. With the NFL not too far behind, the weekends are about to get even more glorious.
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Let's get into the picks on the diamond for tonight.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
- Key Trend: The Orioles are 20-7 in their last 27 home games
- The Pick: Orioles (+100)
We're almost into September and the sportsbooks are still constantly listing the Orioles as the underdogs. That's fine, we'll take the elevated price all the way to the bank.
The Orioles came away with a 5-3 win over the White Sox in Tuesday's matchup and I don't expect anything to change in this spot. White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has been dreadful throughout the season as he's posted a 5.34 ERA. Giolito has previously showcased the stuff to be one of the most dominant pitchers that the sport has to offer, but he hasn't pitched like that in quite some time. He is coming off arguably his worst start of the season as he got shelled for seven earned runs in just three innings in a 21-5 loss at the hands of the Astros.
In fact, Giolito has yielded at least four runs in four of his last eight starts. He's also given up at least six runs in two of those outings. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been victorious in three of the four meetings against the White Sox in 2022. Over his last nine starts, Orioles starter Spenser Watkins has surrendered just one run or fewer in six of those outings. Watkins also is fresh off of limiting the Cubs to just one run on five hits over 5 2/3 innings in his most recent start. Grab the Orioles at plus money and feel great about it.
💰 The Picks
The Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-115): -- The Dodgers possess one of the most dangerous lineups in the league. Couples that with Adrian Houser returning from injury for the Brewers, and this seems like a great spot to attack the over.
Over his last five starts prior to getting injured, Houser allowed at least four runs in three of those outings, including yielding five runs on two occasions. In his last start against the lowly Pirates back on June 30, the veteran right-hander surrendered three earned runs on five hits in just 2 1/3 innings. I can't imagine that Houser goes very deep into this game considering it's his first start back following a forearm strain.
On the other hand, Los Angeles has scored 10 runs in two of its last three games, including tagging Brewers ace Corbin Burnes for seven runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings Tuesday. There's no surprise that the Dodgers have been so lethal offensively since they rank in the top five in just about every offensive category.
Key Trend: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Dodgers' last eight home games against a team with a winning record
The Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-105) -- When both starting pitchers have an ERA above five, you hammer the over. That's the case with Wednesday's AL East matchup between the Blue Jays and Red Sox.
Much like the case is with Giolito, Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios has been absolutely brutal this season. In three starts this month, he's posted an ERA of 8.79 and allowed 13 combined runs in two of those outings.
While it's a small sample size, Red Sox prospect Brayan Bello hasn't exactly given the organization a ton to be optimistic about. In five starts, Bello has posted a 0-3 record to go along with a 8.47 ERA. Bello has yielded at least four runs in three of those five starts while never lasting more than 4 1/3 innings. In addition, the young right-hander has registered at least three walks in three of those starts.
The Blue Jays and Red Sox both rank in the top 10 in the majors in batting average, runs, and total bases and these two teams are coming off of a game in which they scored 12 total runs.
Key Trend: The Over is 5-0 in the Blue Jays' last five road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5