Good afternoon my fellow gamblers, it's Chris Bengel stepping in for Tom Fornelli on this beautiful Tuesday. I sure hope you're not sick of me, because I'll be back with you every Tuesday for the next few months to give Tom a break.
The good news today is that you're having a better Tuesday than Cam Newton, who was released by the New England Patriots this morning. Newton spent the 2020 season with the Patriots and it was a relatively bumpy road for the former NFL MVP. Newton threw for just 2,657 yards last season, which was the second-lowest total of his career, while also tossing just eight touchdown passes. That's why I was shocked that the Patriots re-signed Newton this past offseason.
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Now the Patriots will turn the page and begin the Mac Jones era. Jones was pretty impressive throughout the preseason, so he did plenty to stake his claim to the job. Why would Bill Belichick elect to suffer through another season under Newton when the future franchise signal caller was already on the roster? The Patriots made right call.
Enough about the pigskin. Let's dive into tonight's baseball picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
⚾ Orioles at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-160): It's been no secret that fading the Orioles has been something that the sports betting community has been doing over the last month. That's what happens when a team loses 23 times in 25 games. During the stretch, the Orioles have only lost two games by one run.
The Orioles are starting left-hander Keegan Akin, who has struggled just about all season. Akin has a 1-8 record to go along with a 7.26 ERA, but actually is coming off of a strong performance in which he surrendered just one run in seven innings against the Angels. However, in three career starts against the Blue Jays, Akin owns a 7.71 ERA. He gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays back on June 26.
Given Toronto's dangerous lineup, I'd be shocked if the Blue Jays weren't able to win by at least two runs in this one. On top of that, Blue Jays starter Hyun Jin Ryu is 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA in six career starts against the Orioles.
Key Trend: The Blue Jays own a 5-0 record in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage below .400
💰 The Picks
⚾ MLB
Phillies at Nationals, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Over 9.5 runs (+100) -- This isn't one where I'm throwing a large amount of my bankroll on, but it's definitely worth a sprinkle. The pitching matchup features two pitchers with an ERA north of six in Patrick Corbin and Matt Moore. Corbin has surrendered four or more runs in four of his last five starts. Moore has been pitching better as of late, but he's coming off a start in which he gave up four runs in just four innings to the lowly Diamondbacks.
When the two teams faced off at Nationals Park earlier this month, there were at least 11 runs in three of the four games in and Bryce Harper has made an absolute living out of torching his former team. The Phillies and Nationals both have some of the highest bullpen ERAs in Major League Baseball, so even if the starting pitching is solid, the over can still cash. In addition, it's nice to get some positive juice on the over.
Key Trend: The over is 4-0 in the Nationals' last four home games when the total is set between 9.0-10.5 runs
Yankees at Angels, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Yankees (-195) -- After winning 13 consecutive games, the Yankees have come back down to Earth and dropped their last three games. However, Tuesday's game could be just what the doctor ordered for the Yankees. American League MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani is currently dealing with a sore wrist, so he won't be starting on Tuesday. He'll still be in the lineup as the designated hitter, but the Yankees will get to face right-hander Jaime Barria instead.
Barria is coming off a one-run outing, but that was against the dreadful Orioles. Barria has only faced the Yankees once in his career. While he did earn the win in that 2018 start, Barria surrendered four runs in just five innings of work. The Yankees will get off the snide and should score early and often against an Angels team that recently dropped two of three contests to the Orioles.
Key Trend: Yankees have a 5-1 record in their last six games against a team with a losing record
