The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers square off with sky-high stakes on Thursday. The two Eastern Conference squads meet in a semifinal matchup of the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament. The matchup will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the winner advancing to Saturday's final to face either the Los Angeles Lakers or the New Orleans Pelicans. Milwaukee is 15-6 this season, while Indiana is 11-8 to open the 2023-24 campaign.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Bucks as 5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 257 in the latest Bucks vs. Pacers odds. Before making any Pacers vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 7 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 92-50 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Pacers vs. Bucks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Pacers:

  • Pacers vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5
  • Pacers vs. Bucks over/under: 257 points
  • Pacers vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -201, Pacers +168
  • Indiana: The Pacers are 11-8 against the spread this season
  • Milwaukee: The Bucks are 9-11-1 against the spread this season
  • Pacers vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Pacers can cover

Indiana's offense is electric and highly efficient. The Pacers play at the NBA's fastest pace this season, and Indiana is also leading the league in offensive rating, scoring 123.6 points per 100 possessions. Indiana is No. 1 in the league in 2-point shooting (59.4%) and field goal percentage (50.9%), and the Pacers are shooting 38.8% from 3-point range while connecting on more than 15 triples per game. The Pacers share the ball effectively, leading the NBA with 30.2 assists per game, and Indiana also sits atop the league in points in the paint (59.1 per game) and fast break points (17.5 per game).

Despite playing at an incredibly fast tempo, the Pacers commit a turnover on only 12.2% of offensive possessions, and star guard Tyrese Haliburton is breaking out as an elite player. He is leading the NBA with 11.9 assists per game this season, and Haliburton is averaging 26.9 points per game while shooting 52% from the field and 44.7% from 3-point range. Haliburton also recorded his first career triple-double (26 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds) in Indiana's victory over Boston earlier this week. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee has one of the best offenses in the NBA, and this is also a favorable matchup for the Bucks on that side of the floor. The Bucks are scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top three of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee is No. 2 in the league in shooting efficiency, posting a 61.4% true shooting percentage, and the Bucks are in the top six in field goal percentage (50.0%), 2-point percentage (58.4%), and 3-point percentage (38.4%). 

The Pacers land near the bottom of the NBA in overall defensive efficiency, yielding more than 1.2 points per possession. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five of the league in field goal percentage allowed (50.2%), 3-point percentage allowed (39.1%), free throw attempts allowed (27.6 per game), defensive rebound rate (67.8%), second-chance points allowed (16.6 per game), and points allowed in the paint (62.6 per game). See which team to pick here.

How to make Pacers vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, with only three players projected to score 16 points or more. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Pacers vs. Bucks, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pacers vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that is on an 92-50 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.