The Cleveland Cavaliers put the best home record in the Eastern Conference on the line Tuesday with a challenging matchup. The Cavaliers host the Miami Heat at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, with Cleveland posting a 21-5 record in home games. The Cavaliers are 31-21 overall, and the Heat are 28-23 overall and 11-14 on the road. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is questionable for Miami, with Duncan Robinson (finger) ruled out.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Cleveland as a 4-point home favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 210.5 in the latest Heat vs. Cavaliers odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Cavaliers vs. Heat match-up, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 49-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Cavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines and trends for Cavs vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -4
- Heat vs. Cavaliers over/under: 210.5 points
- Heat vs. Cavaliers money line: Miami +152, Cleveland -180
- Miami: The Heat are 10-13-1 against the spread in road games
- Cleveland: The Cavaliers are 17-8-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
- Heat vs. Cavaliers picks: See picks here
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is talented and disciplined, with the Heat bringing balance on offense. The Heat have three players averaging at least 20 points per game, with Bam Adebayo leading the way in producing 21.4 points and 10.0 rebounds per game while shooting 54% from the field. Miami takes care of the ball, committing only 13.5 turnovers per game, and rank No. 3 in the NBA in free throw accuracy at 82.5%.
On the other end, Miami is elite in defending opponents, allowing only 111.0 points per 100 possessions to rank in the top five of the NBA. The Heat create 16.6 turnovers and 8.6 steals per game, and rank in the top three of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (73.5%) and free throw attempts allowed (21.1 per game). Miami leads the league in points allowed in the paint (44.5 per game), and the Heat are also excellent in transition, holding opponents to fewer than 12 fast break points per game.
Why the Cavaliers can cover
Cleveland's offense is strong this season, putting up 114.4 points per 100 possessions behind the work of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. However, the Cavaliers are truly excellent on defense with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen anchoring the team's resistance. Cleveland is in the top three of the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing only 109.7 points per 100 possessions. The Cavaliers lead the league in assists allowed (22.6 per game) and second-chance points allowed (12.0 per game), with top-five marks in 2-point accuracy allowed (52.6%) and points allowed in the paint (46.5 per game).
Cleveland is also excellent in contesting shots, yielding a 46.7% field goal mark, and the Cavaliers are securing more than 73% of defensive rebounds with 15.0 turnovers created per game. With the Cavaliers facing a struggling Heat offense that ranks in the bottom five in points per possession, field goal percentage, and 3-point percentage, Cleveland projects well on the defensive end.
How to make Heat vs. Cavaliers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with 11 players projected to score at least 11 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Cavaliers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Cavaliers spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.