Now that we're in the thick of the NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
There's going to be a slight overreaction to the comeback the Lakers almost pulled off in the fourth quarter. Yes, the adjustment to put Rui Hachimura on Nikola Jokic while allowing Anthony Davis to serve as the primary help-defender worked wonders, but it's the sort of thing Denver can disarm with time to plan. All the Nuggets need to do is involve Aaron Gordon as a screener just as Golden State did with whoever Davis guarded. The first half was a bit more one-sided than we should expect, but now that both teams have had a bit of time to adjust to one another, they should settle in around their expected level of performance. The Nuggets are a slightly better team and remain a viable favorite at home. The Pick: Nuggets -5.5
Game 1 featured a level of scoring that was probably unsustainable. The Lakers and Nuggets are both low-volume 3-point shooting teams, yet they combined to make 26 of them and both shot above 45% from deep. Yet the final total was a staggering 258 points. There are just too many easy sources of offense in this series to ever expect the scoring to dip too much. LeBron James will always be able to switch-hunt Jamal Murray. Anthony Davis will have the advantage over every Nugget that tries to guard him. The Lakers almost always play with at least one vulnerable defender. The points should keep rolling in here. The Pick: Over 227
Michael Malone himself commented on how effectively and specifically the Nuggets targeted D'Angelo Russell. "I felt we did a great job on D'Angelo Russell — so great that he wasn't even in the game much in the second half," Malone said after Game 1. This might just be a matchup that Russell isn't well-suited for. Expect Rui Hachimura to pick up more minutes and for the Lakers to lean on Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder as their primary guards. That should lead to more low-scoring outputs for Russell. The Pick: Russell Under 13.5 Points
