The Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat battle in Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Friday at Kaseya Center in Miami. The Nuggets (53-29) regained the upper hand with a 109-94 victory in Game 3 on Wednesday, after splitting the two previous games in Denver. The Nuggets, seeking their first-ever NBA championship, had never made it past the Western Conference finals until this season. The Heat (44-38), who needed to win in the play-in tournament to reach the playoffs, are just the second eighth-seed to reach the NBA Finals. 

Tip-off from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver leads the all-time series 40-35, and has won 11 of the past 13 matchups. The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 211. Before making any Heat vs. Nuggets picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Larry tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS (61 percent). Those selections formed the basis of his SportsLine NFL best bets article, which finished 36-25-1. 

Hartstein also excels in MLB, college basketball and the NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 100 Denver matchups, he is 59-38-3 against the spread (plus $1,725 for $100 players, every bet 1 unit).

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Nuggets vs. Heat and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat: 

  • Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Nuggets -3.5 
  • Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 211 points 
  • Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Nuggets -165, Heat +140 
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games against a team with a winning home record 
  • MIA: The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss 
  • Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See pick at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover 

Power forward Aaron Gordon is coming off a double-double in Game 3. In that game, Gordon scored 11 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, while dishing out five assists and making one steal. He has reached double-figure scoring in each of the last four games, including a 22-point performance in the deciding Game 4 of the Western Conference finals sweep over the Lakers. In 18 postseason games, Gordon is averaging 13 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists.

Small forward Bruce Brown, one of six Denver players averaging double-figure scoring, has done all of his work off the bench. In 18 postseason games, he is averaging 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 steals. In 27 minutes off the bench in Game 2, Brown had 11 points, five rebounds and two steals. He has reached double-digit scoring in seven of the past nine games, including a 25-point performance in a 118-102 win over the Suns in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Small forward Jimmy Butler continues to carry Miami this postseason, and has come up big when a big effort was needed most. In the Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, he poured in 28 points, while grabbing seven rebounds and adding six assists. He just missed a double-double in the Game 2 win at Denver with 21 points and nine assists. In 20 games this postseason, Butler is averaging nearly five points more than he did in the regular season at 27.3 points per game.

Point guard Gabe Vincent will look for a bounce-back effort in Game 4, after being held to just seven points and two steals in Game 3. He played a big role in Sunday's Game 2 win in Denver, scoring 23 points and adding three assists and two steals. He has reached double-digit scoring in six of the past seven games, and is averaging 13.6 points, 3.7 assists and 1.6 rebounds during the playoffs. Despite Wednesday's drop-off in production, Vincent is averaging 16.3 points in the series. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Nuggets vs. Heat, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the expert who has returned over $1,700 to $100 players over his last 100 Denver Nuggets picks, and find out.