While we're starting to believe Bryce Young will go No. 1 overall to the Panthers, we don't know where the rest of the top quarterback prospects will land. Who will trade up? And for which passer?
This article asks another, more specific question: Are the top-four quarterback prospects, those most likely to be first-round picks, better than the veterans they could possibly replace?
Now, I originally planned to have a wide array of answers to that question for each quarterback, then realized it'd make things too convoluted. You'll see a "yes" or "no" below.
Of course, this is not a clear-cut way to determine whether or not a team should select a quarterback in the first round. Team-building is significantly more complex than that. Some, most or all of these teams could theoretically "get by" in 2023 with their penciled-in veteran starters before turning their attention to the 2024 quarterback class.
Still, let's work through the question with the four-most quarterback-needy teams in this year's draft.
Carolina Panthers
Top rostered QB: Andy Dalton
Right when it seemed like the league was ready to move on from Dalton for good, he pulled everyone back in with his best season since 2016. Dalton is Dalton, though. When pressure arises, he crumbles. Behind a quality line, in an offense in which he can get the ball out quickly -- he can be serviceable. The latter point is why he's hung around for over a decade in the NFL and is still getting starting gigs.
Are draft prospects better?
- Bryce Young: Yes
- C.J. Stroud: Yes
- Anthony Richardson: No
- Will Levis: No
Let's split this between prospects. Young is more athletic and creative than Dalton. Stroud's more accurate. Richardson, right now, isn't better than Dalton. By Year 2, it won't be shocking if he is. In the meantime, he can lean on his legs to generate the splash plays on the ground -- and an occasional deep strike downfield -- that have mostly been absent from Dalton's NFL career.
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Houston Texans
Top rostered QB: Davis Mills
Mills has shown he can play in this league. As a former third-round pick, Houston should be happy with the return Mills have provided during some rough years as an organization. But right when you think Mills could be the long-term solution at quarterback for the Texans, he has a ghastly, multi-pick performance without many (or any) big-time throws.
Are draft prospects better?
- Bryce Young: Yes
- C.J. Stroud: Basically
- Anthony Richardson: Yes
- Will Levis: No
Young and Stroud are both more poised in the pocket than Mills, although Young doesn't have Mills' arm strength. Despite being a capable athlete, Mills isn't a consistent improvisational type like Young proved to be at Alabama. I actually view Mills and Stroud similarly strictly from throwing perspective, but the Ohio State passer is more accurate on a series-to-series basis and doesn't have the low lows Mills provided over the past two seasons in Houston.
Levis has more upside than Mills, but isn't ready to glide through progressions and throw strikes without a bevy of talented receivers around him. Of course, though, in time, mostly because of his physical prowess, he can be better than Mills at the NFL level.
Indianapolis Colts
Top rostered QB: Gardner Minshew
Minshew's proven to be a fun spot starter in the NFL. Over time, his lack of mobility and average-at-best arm talent hinders what his offenses can do in terms of explosive plays. Quick release. Check. Decently accurate. Check. Good decision-maker. Check.
Are draft prospects better?
- Bryce Young: Yes
- C.J. Stroud: Yes
- Anthony Richardson: Yes
- Will Levis: Yes
Young and Stroud are obvious. Richardson not so much, and it's mostly because Richardson and Minshew are close to being polar opposites on the field. With Minshew you know what you're getting. Richardson's intrigue lies within his upside and uncertainty. Levis can do a lot of the same things Minshew can, and while there'd be more blatant misses, he'd also provide more high-caliber throws through the second and third levels of the defense. He's, of course, more active as a runner, too.
Washington Commanders
Top rostered QB: Sam Howell
Howell is essentially the incumbent by default in Washington. He didn't exactly light it up in his audition late in 2022 but he's young, and was drafted last season. Plus, there's potential with his athletic profile and untimid style of ripping the ball downfield he showcased in college.
Are draft prospects better?
- Bryce Young: Yes
- C.J. Stroud: Yes
- Anthony Richardson: Yes
- Will Levis: Yes
At this stage of his career, because we simply haven't seen much, I can't draw any major conclusions on Howell in the NFL. But, of course, I vividly remember scouting him last year, and I was lower on him than the consensus. Therefore, I like all of the top four quarterback prospects, even Levis, more than Howell. Howell had those flashes, even starting in his freshman season, but held onto the ball far too long, far too often wasn't particularly accurate down the field and will not be able to resort to scrambling as frequently in the NFL as he did in college. Young and Stroud are more polished passers. Richardson is a freakier athlete -- obviously -- and Levis can do everything Howell can as a passer while providing a touch more arm talent to stretch defenses vertically.
