NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. For years now I've written up the win totals for CBS, so it's wild to me we now get them in mid-to-late March; we've always had to grind our way through May to get them released.
Caesars Sportsbook dropped win totals for every single NFL team recently, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive into the NFC East, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, if you like an over that's reasonably high, don't bet it now, because injuries are random. Four, I'm picking these as of March 30, so I'll lean more Unders based on injuries.
Let's get to it.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Over 10.5 (-130) / Under 10.5 (+110)
Not to belabor a point I've made several times (or will over the course of the NFC anyway; check all the links above for each division's win total bets as they come out), but it's dangerous to bet a huge number like this on an Over this early in the offseason. The Eagles are a really good team and probably win 11+ games most of the time. But there's a long way between now and the start of the season. Would I prefer Over 10.5 (-130) to Over 11.5 (+110)? Probably. I'm just not sure it gets there. Bringing back Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson and Brandon Graham was enormous; re-signing Darius Slay and James Bradberry was huge too after it looked we might see an exodus of talent in the secondary. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a huge loss but things looked much worse early on. The brain drain from a Super Bowl run is real: losing both of your coordinators ain't no joke. Fourteen+ games of Rashaad Penny might lead the league in rushing but Miles Sanders was dependable as hell last year. There's tape on Jalen Hurts' breakout season now as well. I'm not bearish on Philly, this is just a huge number for a team with a first-place schedule and a target on its back this early in the offseason. I wouldn't bet this either way right now unless you have a STRONG conviction on the jacked-up price on Philly's over.
Pick: Eagles UNDER 10.5 (+110)
Dallas Cowboys
Over 9.5 (-150) / Under 9.5 (+130)
America's Team always delivers in the betting market. Aggressively priced with that -150 sticker, Dallas is a bit of a conundrum given the coordinator switch from Kellen Moore to Brian Schottenheimer. The latter is a #friendofthepod, great dude and a fan of running the football, which Mike McCarthy has promised will happen more often. The only issue here isn't a lack of Ezekiel Elliott, because that's a plus. It's the question of Tony Pollard's health and the primary backup being Ronald Jones. The Cowboys receiver corps is stout and Dak Prescott is a high-end quarterback. What are we doing here? The roster looks good overall, honestly. Dan Quinn is a stud DC and just keeps hanging around, waiting for the best possible next job (very smart of him, by the way). I think I might have looked Under here a bunch but I'm starting to think the Over is pretty damn solid after Mike McCarthy went 12-5 the last two seasons despite us lamenting almost everything he did along the way. I'm not betting -150 right now but this probably gets up to 10.5 before the start of the season.
Pick: Cowboys OVER 9.5 (-150)
New York Giants
Over 8.5 (+125) / Under 8.5 (-145)
This is maybe my favorite bet in the entire NFC? Sure the Giants probably punched above their weight a little bit for much of last season, but their success wasn't a luck-driven fluke ... I don't think. They profiled as an 8.3-win team and found a way to nine wins and finished 8-4-1 in one-score games ... so there's some concern. But I look at this team as the 2017 Buffalo Bills -- the drastic coaching improvement drove their surprising success. Daniel Jones might come with question marks to many people, but what if 2022 is his baseline and he only improves in his second year with Brian Daboll at the helm? If that's the case this contract could look like a steal. They brought back Saquon Barkley, they added Darren Waller, a pass catcher could await in the draft ... there's reason for optimism with this offense. Continuity is at an all-time recent high for this franchise on both sides of the ball and they get the AFC South and NFC North as crossover divisions. This number is too low!
Pick: Giants OVER 8.5 +125
Washington Commanders
Over 7.5 (+150) / Under 7.5 (-175)
Last year the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, paired him with Taylor Heinecke, weren't very good on defense for half the season and still managed to go 8-8-1. Losing Scott Turner as an offensive coordinator stings, I think, and is unfair in the wake of the Wentz stuff. Eric Bienemy has a chance to prove he deserves a head coaching job after being snubbed in Kansas City (it feels a little TOO good to be true he'd leave Patrick Mahomes for Sam Howell after winning his second Super Bowl ring, but I digress). There's some concern about the whole "selling the team amid scandal" stuff going with Dan Snyder, but you're getting $1.50 for Ron Rivera to go better than .500 with a decent schedule. If you don't believe in Sam Howell at all, so be it. But I've watched the dude play a lot of football and he's not a fifth-round pick. This might be the best PRICE of any division bet currently out there.
Pick: Commanders OVER 7.5 (+150)
