Week 3 in the NFL wraps up on Monday with a doubleheader beginning in Tampa where the Buccaneers will play host to the Eagles. Both of these teams have jumped out to a 2-0 start to the season. While that's not entirely surprising for the Eagles after a Super Bowl run a season ago, it is for the Bucs, who were looked to be in a transition year following the retirement of Tom Brady. Instead, Baker Mayfield has looked solid and they have been able to edge out two victories to begin the year. Of course, facing Philadelphia will be a step up in difficulty even if this game is at Raymond James Stadium.
Here, we're going to take a look at this game from a gambling perspective. We'll look at the line movement leading up to Monday, the total and dive into a handful of player props. Before we do, let's make sure you know how to watch this prime-time rivalry matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
- Eagles: WR Quez Watkins (hamstring), RB Boston Scott (concussion) OUT
- Buccaneers: DT Calijah Kancey (calf), LB SirVocea Dennis (hamstring) OUT; CB Carlton Davis (toe), DT Vita Vea (pectoral), G Cody Mauch (back), LB Devin White (groin) QUESTIONABLE
This spread opened at Eagles -6.5, but there does seem to be some action coming in on the Bucs as this number has dropped down to Eagles -5, and there have even been some books where the Eagles are laying 4.5 points as the road favorite.
The pick: Eagles -5. Philadelphia's start to the season has been clunky. While they are 2-0, it hasn't exactly been a smooth operation on offense and they've been susceptible through the air on defense. That said, because of their talent, things will start to click for them at some point and I expect it to potentially be in this game on Monday night. Corner James Bradberry and safety Reed Blankenship will be back for this game after missing last week and that should give the secondary a huge boost.
Meanwhile, I still need a bit more to start believing in the Buccaneers. Mayfield -- who is 1-4 SU and ATS on "Monday Night Football" -- has been solid, but he's also faced the Vikings and Bears defenses thus far, which aren't exactly formidable units.
I expect the Eagles to look more like last year's teams on Monday night against a Bucs franchise that is 2-12 ATS in primetime since 2020.
I'm pretty confident in my pick but you might want to check out Micah Roberts' pick. Roberts is 16-6-1 on his last 23 picks in games involving the Buccaneers. We can tell you he's leaning Under the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a MUST-BACK! Check it out here.
There hasn't been much significant movement with the total. It opened at 45.5 and ticked up to 46 for a moment before dropping a point to 45 and has held at that spot since.
The pick: Over 45. Slight lean here. If this game is tight, it'll be because the Buccaneers are finding success finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin through the air against Philadelphia secondary, which should result in points for both sides. And if the Eagles flex their Super Bowl potential in a possible rout, I could see them flirting with 30 points, which would only require the Bucs to do a little of the legwork to get us cashing. The Over has also hit in five straight prime-time games for the Eagles, which is the longest active streak in the league.
Jalen Hurts props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
Passing yards: 238.5 (Over -119, Under 115,)
Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +146, Under -204)
Rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
Rushing attempts: 9.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
If you're unsure if Philadelphia will be able to get its passing game in sync for this game, you can lean on the Eagles being more than willing to call Jalen Hurts' number on the ground. The dual-threat quarterback rushed 12 times against the Vikings last week and nine times in the opener, so we'll lean on the Over for his 9.5 rushing attempts on Monday night. Last season, he had double-digit rushing attempts in seven of his 15 games played.
Baker Mayfield props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +146, Under -204)
Passing yards: 229.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over -133, Under -103)
Passing completions: 21.5 (Over -127, Under -108)
Longest passing completion: 35.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
Rushing yards: 11.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
The Bucs haven't been shy about letting Mayfield throw. He's dropped back to pass 34 times in each of the past two games and is completing 69.1% of his throws. I like the Over on his 21.5 completions for this game, which is a number he nearly topped in Week 1 (21 completions) and did exceed in Week 2 (26). The thinking is that Mayfield will likely be forced to get the ball out quickly with the Eagles applying the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL over the past two seasons. Fortunately for Mayfield, he's done well when pressure so far this year. Against pressure, Mayfield has completed 15 of his 21 throws (71.4%) and has a 123.1 passer rating. Instead of deep bombs to Mike Evans, Mayfield could be dinking and dunking his way down the field, which, of course, creates more pass-catching opportunities.
Props to consider
Cade Otton total receptions: Over 2.5 (-163). We're laying the juice, but Mayfield seems to be building up a rapport with Otton, who caught all six of his targets last week. The Eagles are giving up the most receptions to tight ends this season and the second most receiving yards.
A.J. Brown total receiving yards: Over 68.5 (-139). Calling our shot here. A.J. Brown returns to form on Monday night after a sluggish start to the year and jumps over this total. Brown is still the most targeted weapon in this Eagles offense and is now facing a Bucs secondary that allowed D.J. Moore to go for over 100 yards receiving in Week 2 and Justin Jefferson to post 150 receiving yards in the opener.