Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings
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Tonight is one of those nights I hate. The Chicago Bears are playing a primetime NFL game, and the world will be watching. That never works out well for me. Sometimes the Bears win, and they might tonight (more on that shortly), but it's never pretty. They usually lose in blowout fashion (often against the Packers) or blow a huge lead and break my heart (often against the Packers, but occasionally the Vikings too).

When they win, it's the ugliest game you've ever seen, and viewers wonder why they're subjected to the Bears in primetime.

So I'm sure we've got nothing to fear about a game between the mighty 2-3 Chicago Bears and 1-4 Washington Commanders. That's Game of the Century material! And if you think it can't be any worse than last week's Thursday night game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, my friend, it definitely can be.

As you saw, we have no baseball tonight, but we do have three football games to bet, so let's do that.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Commanders at Bears, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon

  • Key Trend: Washington is 9-17 on the road since 2019
  • The Pick: Bears +1 (-110)

It's time to ask yourself a simple question. Do you, as a person of sound mind and body, really want to bet on Carson Wentz as a road favorite? Do you want to bet on the QB who has thrown six interceptions and been sacked 20 times -- not because of a bad OL, but because he just stands there for days waiting for something that's never coming -- as a favorite? I don't!

The other side of this coin is that we're betting on the Chicago Bears in a primetime spotlight game and that seldom goes well, but it's the right play tonight. The Bears' offense has been one of the worst in the NFL, but it looked noticeably better last week in a 29-22 loss at Minnesota. After the game, Fields commented on how much more comfortable he felt in the offense, and it seems he's figuring things out. While players say a lot of things, Fields tends to be pretty blunt in his postgame comments, so what he said stands out to me.

Plus, on a short week, the Bears will likely rely more on their run game than usual. David Montgomery returned last week and played well, and while the Commanders have been good against the run, we've seen teams like the Titans and Lions get to them. Believe me, this isn't going to be a comfortable bet, no matter what side you take, but the Bears should be the favorites.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Mike Tierney has gone 28-14-1 in his last 43 picks involving the Commanders, and he has a play on the spread tonight as well.

💰 College Football Picks

NCAA Football: Oklahoma State at Baylor

Baylor at West Virginia, 7 p.m | TV: FS1

The Pick: Baylor -3 (-110) -- Baylor and West Virginia haven't shared a conference for long, so they've only played each other 10 times. The Bears are yet to win a game in Morgantown. They've lost the first five, but aside from a 58-14 loss in 2018, they've all been close losses. And there's a first time for everything. That first time will be tonight.

Baylor is not as good as the team that won the Big 12 last season, but West Virginia's results have been slightly misleading. The Mountaineers rank seventh nationally with 3.47 points scored per possession but rank 26th in success rate and 100th in explosive play rate. It's hard to be as consistent as the Mountaineers' offense with an explosive play rate that low, and the Baylor defense is one of the toughest defenses West Virginia has faced. Also, the Mountaineers defense stinks. Their inability to get stops tonight will prove to be the difference.

Temple at UCF, 7 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: UCF 1st Half -14 (-110) -- 
The Temple defense rates pretty well in many statistics I care about: 12th nationally in success rate, 14th in points per drive, 18th in explosive play rate and 10th in EPA per snap. Of course, those numbers become less impressive when you look at who Temple has played. The Owls gave up 30 in their season-opener against Duke but have allowed only 54 points in their last four games against Lafayette, Rutgers, UMass and Memphis.

UCF is the most dangerous offense the Owls will have seen. The Knights should fare fine against the Temple defense and have an excellent defense of their own. Not that they'll need it against a Temple offense that ranks outside the top 120 (of 131, mind you) in basically every stat imaginable. My only fear is that the Knights relax in the second half, opening the possibility of a backdoor, but they should blow the feathers off the Owls in the first half.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: All the best prop bets for Bears-Commanders can be found here.