The Jacksonville Jaguars have played more international games than any other NFL franchise, and that number will grow again on Sunday. Jacksonville will meet the Atlanta Falcons at Wembley Stadium in London for an early clash in Week 4. It is the 25th all-time NFL game at the venue and the first of five international games for the league in 2023. Atlanta is 2-1 overall, though the Falcons are coming off a Week 3 loss, while Jacksonville is trying to stop a two-game losing skid at 1-2 overall this season.
Kickoff is at 9:30 a.m. ET in London. The Jaguars are three-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 42.5 in the latest Falcons vs. Jaguars odds. Before you make any Jaguars vs. Falcons picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Jaguars and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Jaguars:
- Falcons vs. Jaguars spread: Jaguars -3
- Falcons vs. Jaguars over/under: 42.5 points
- Falcons vs. Jaguars money line: Jaguars -161, Falcons +138
- ATL: Falcons are 10-10 against the spread in the last 20 games
- JAX: Jaguars are 9-11 against the spread in the last 20 games
- Falcons vs. Jaguars picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Falcons can cover
Atlanta's defense has impressed through the first three games. The Falcons have allowed only 18.0 points per game, No. 7 in the NFL, and Atlanta is in the top 10 in total yards allowed (287.7 per game), passing yards (170.0 per game), and third down defense (32.4%). The Falcons also give up a touchdown on only 44.4% of red zone trips and have allowed only two plays of 25 or more yards all season, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
Newly-acquired veteran safety Jessie Bates III has three interceptions in three games, and the Falcons are facing a Jacksonville offense that already has five turnovers. The Jaguars are also averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and converting only 29.7% of third down chances. On the other side, Atlanta's running game is potent behind Bijan Robinson. The Falcons are averaging almost 130 rushing yards per game, and Robinson is in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage (315), yards after contact (3.8 per rush), tackles avoided (15), and yards per carry (5.5). See which team to pick here.
Why the Jaguars can cover
The Jaguars are stout against the run, yielding only 84.0 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per rush attempt. Jacksonville also has six takeaways, a top-eight figure in the league, and opponents are turning only 41.7% of red zone chances into touchdowns. Former top-10 pick Josh Allen has three sacks this season, and Atlanta's offense is not firing on all cylinders.
Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder is 0-3 away from Atlanta in his career, generating only 11.0 points per game. This season, the Falcons are averaging only 18.3 points per game and the passing game is a reason for those struggles. Atlanta is No. 26 or worse in total yards (283.3 per game), passing yards (155.0), and net yards per pass (4.7). The Falcons are also No. 27 in third down efficiency (30.8%). The Jaguars can focus on Atlanta's running game and lean on those stout metrics. See which team to pick here.
How to make Falcons vs. Jaguars picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the point total, with both teams projected to rush for more than 115 yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Falcons vs. Jaguars in London, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Jaguars spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 167-117 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.