We finally came back to earth last week, going 4-6-3 against the spread. There were certainly a weird amount of ATS ties last week. It was a .500 week on our top five locks, as we went 2-2-1. The Minnesota Vikings easily could have covered three points against the Washington Commanders, but they instead played it safe at the end.
This week feels very different. We are really going to have to pay attention to these final injury reports. And remember, just because a player is active doesn't mean he's going to be 100 percent. We have Josh Allen dealing with an elbow injury, Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol, Kyler Murray has a hamstring issue that could affect his mobility, and virtually everyone on the Green Bay Packers is banged-up. I feel like injuries are going to affect things in Week 10.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 24-20-1
Overall ATS record: 73-59-4
Straight up record: 90-45-1
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, FuboTV)
I'm not an oddsmaker, but I would probably have this line at a pick'em, so I'm going to take the points with the Seahawks. You could also make the argument that the wrong teams is favored in this matchup. Seattle is truly the surprise of the 2022 NFL season, as its five upset wins are tied for most in the NFL. As for Tampa Bay, its five losses as favorites are the most in the NFL.
The Seahawks are 4-0 SU and ATS in their past four games, and have won each contest by double digits. What blows my mind is that this Seahawks defense is No. 1 in total defense (282.8 yards of total offense allowed per game) during this four-game win streak. If you recall, Seattle had the worst defense in the league earlier this season. It's not just Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III carrying this team anymore. Speaking of the rookie running back, he has the third-most rushing yards in the NFL since Week 5, and has rushed for a touchdown in five straight games.
Tom Brady is 2-2 in his career vs. the Seahawks, which is tied for his worst record vs. any team -- including playoffs. Give me the Seahawks this week.
Additionally, I spoke with Seahawks legend Shaun Alexander this week. He's out in Germany having fun.for that conversation.
The pick: Seahawks +2.5
Projected score: Seahawks 28-21
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
It's wild that I'm at the point where I'm making the Bears a best bet. Seriously, this offense was terrible to start the year. Their play-calling was atrocious, and Chicago's red-zone play-calling specifically had me convinced every player would be forced to run laps if they were to ever touch the end zone. That's changed now, and Justin Fields is thriving.
Last week vs. the Miami Dolphins, the Ohio State product completed 17 of 28 passes for 123 yards and three touchdowns, and rushed 15 times for 178 yards and one touchdown. He also set a franchise record for longest touchdown run by a quarterback with a 61-yard score. Fields' 178 rushing yards were the most by a quarterback in a regular-season game in NFL HISTORY. Fields also became the first player in NFL history to throw three touchdowns and rush for 140-plus yards. What's he going to do against the worst defense in the NFL?
The Lions upset the Packers last week, but they needed three Aaron Rodgers turnovers to do so. Dan Campbell is 0-11-1 on the road in his coaching career, and the Lions have lost six straight games following a win. I don't want to overlook the fact that the Bears have lost two straight games, but they are playing with some confidence. The Bears won both games vs. the Lions last season, if you were wondering. I'm taking them again here.
The pick: Bears -3
Projected score: Bears 24-14
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I wrestled with this one. I feel like taking the Dolphins to cover this week is a trendy pick -- which I hate making in most cases. At the same time, the Dolphins are the better team. They are 3-1 at home -- including a win over the Buffalo Bills -- and undefeated when Tua Tagovailoa plays the entire game. I'm not saying he's Tom Brady, but under Mike McDaniel's guidance, Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passer rating (115.9), yards per attempt (9.2) and is third in completion percentage (70%). If you aren't impressed just yet, well, Tagovailoa has the highest completion percentage (67.7%) by any quarterback on throws 10 or more yards downfield through nine games since Brady back in 2007. He's also elite on third downs, having the highest passer rating (147) of any quarterback on third downs in a single season since 1991.
If you skipped the majority of that paragraph, I don't blame you. I probably don't need to sell you on this Dolphins offense. What scares me is the defense. Miami has the worst PFF pass coverage grade this season (47.6). BUT ... the Under is 4-0 for the Dolphins at home this year. Justin Fields tore this defense up last week, but Jacoby Brissett ain't that guy, pal. Nick Chubb is going to get his yards, but Miami's offense has the clear advantage over Cleveland's defense. I hate the hook here, and I've been burned on it before in best bets. But I'll take -3.5. Buy the full point for your parlay.
The pick: Dolphins -3.5
Projected score: Dolphins 28-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs were disappointing off of the bye against the Tennessee Titans. That win did not feel like a win. An overtime field goal victory against a backup rookie quarterback making his second career start without a wide receiving corps? Not to insult the Titans -- who clearly won in the toughness category -- but the Chiefs are obviously the better team. The Jaguars are not as good as the Titans, so maybe this home game in K.C. is the one where Patrick Mahomes and Co. explode. That's what I believe. The Chiefs are 3-5 ATS this season, which is ugly, but I'm calling my shot.
The pick: Chiefs -9.5
Projected score: Chiefs 31-20
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
I took the Lions to upset the Packers last week. Sure, I needed Aaron Rodgers to throw 100 red-zone interceptions, but it worked out. Go ahead and check out Green Bay's injury report. David Bakhtiari, Krys Barnes, De'Vondre Campbell, Romeo Doubs, Rashan Gary (placed on IR), Elgton Jenkins, Aaron Jones and Eric Stokes all missed practice to start the week. They are banged-up, but more importantly, not playing well. Hell, Packers Hall of Fame safety LeRoy Butler even said on CBS Sports' Maggie and Perloff show this week that the team benching Rodgers if the Packers lose the next few games and fall out of playoff contention just to see what they have in Jordan Love.
The Packers are on the NFL's longest active losing streak (five games). That five-game losing streak is tied for the longest losing streak of Rodgers' career. As last week showed, he's not blameless in this abysmal start. Rodgers has the worst record (3-6), fewest team points per game (17.1) and worst passer rating (89) through nine games of any season in his career.
As for the Cowboys, they look like legitimate contenders, and this is a revenge game for head coach Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys are 2-0 SU and ATS since Dak Prescott returned to the starting lineup. Dallas has also won both of those games by 18-plus points.
The pick: Cowboys -4.5
Projected score: Cowboys 29-23
Other Week 10 picks
Falcons (-2.5) 13-10 over Panthers
Bills 27-24 over Vikings (+3.5)
Giants (-4.5) 23-17 over Texans
Saints (-1.5) 24-21 over Steelers
Broncos (+3) 17-16 over Titans
Raiders 21-18 over Colts (+4.5)
Cardinals (+1.5) 30-20 over Rams
49ers 28-24 over Chargers (+7)
Eagles 30-20 over Commanders (+11)