NFL: Preseason-Houston Texans at New England Patriots

And that's what we call a bounce back! After what was admittedly a horrid showing in Week 2 (5-10-1 ATS), I was able to surge back with a very profitable Week 3, rolling to a 10-6 ATS mark, which included a 4-1 ATS record with my five locks of the week. But this isn't an exhale by any means. It's simply what we're here to do and now it's time to roll the sleeve back up again and go to work as we look forward to Week 4. 

This slate is a fun one with plenty of divisional head-to-heads and a handful of marquee franchises going toe to toe. Below, we'll be riding with a red-hot rookie quarterback to pull off an upset as a home dog and pick on the two New York clubs as they both enter tough prime-time games.

2023 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS
: 8-7
ATS: 24-23-1
ML: 28-20

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

How can you not be impressed by what we've seen from C.J. Stroud over the last few weeks? In my estimation, he's the best out of the rookie quarterbacks through three weeks and that includes an upset win last week against Jacksonville. Now, Houston heads home to host the Steelers, who were able to edge out a win on Sunday night in Las Vegas. I wasn't overly impressed with Pittsburgh's offense in Week 3 outside of Calvin Austin III's 72-yard touchdown. The Raiders secondary is arguably the worst in the NFL at the moment and it didn't seem like the Steelers could consistently exploit it. Given the way Stroud has played and my questions still lingering about the Steelers offense, I'll gladly back the home dog with a field goal in my back pocket. 

Projected score: Texans 23, Steelers 20
The pick: Texans +3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury and it's unclear if he'll suit up in this matchup. If he does, he'll almost certainly be less than 100%, so it seems wise to grab the field goal here and look for the Bucs to head into New Orleans and pull out a win. Tampa Bay's has been solid with Baker Mayfield under center and has been extremely efficient on third down. Mayfield has the highest completion percentage (78.1%) in the league on third down this season and a 129.4 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Saints have been unable to move the chains as their 53.1% punt rate is the highest in the league and that was with a healthy Carr. 

Projected score: Buccaneers 21, Saints 17
The pick: Buccaneers +3

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

  • Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

The Jets continue to stand by Zach Wilson as their quarterback despite him clearly being the piece that is holding New York back from being a playoff contender. He made some extremely head-scratching decisions in last week's loss to New England and I simply can't fathom a way this offense can keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Wilson is 1-6 ATS in his last seven starts and I'll certainly lay the points here with the best QB in the NFL taking on the worst QB in the NFL. 

Projected score: Chiefs 30, Jets 13
The pick: Chiefs -9.5 

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

New England was able to notch its first win of the season on Sunday, but it wasn't exactly a convincing victory that makes you believe everything is getting on the right track. The offense still looked a bit disjointed and the Patriots gave the Jets every opportunity to come back and potentially pull off the upset. New York wasn't talented enough to take advantage, but Dallas is and the Cowboys are going to have a chip on their shoulder after allowing the Cardinals to upset them in Week 3 despite being a double-digit favorite. The Cowboys are coming into this game on a nine-game winning streak at home, which includes a 7-2 ATS mark. 

Projected score: Cowboys 28, Patriots 17 
The pick: Cowboys -7

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)

We're going to attack the trend of the Giants strugglingly mightily in prime time. The club is 1-13 SU in prime-time games since 2019 and Daniel Jones has been historically bad on this stage. The Giants QB is 1-11 in prime time and that .083 win percentage is the worst mark since the merger for a quarterback (min. 10 starts). Since 2017, New York is just 1-7 ATS at home in prime time and averaged just 12.8 points per game over that stretch. At this point, you have to tail that trend until the Giants give us a reason not to. Seattle's defense has not been great so far this season, but its offense should be able to keep the Seahawks afloat here in a favorable spot.  

Projected score: Seahawks 27, Giants 23
The pick: Seahawks +1.5

Rest of the bunch

Lions at Packers
Projected score: Packers 23, Lions 21
The pick: Packers +1.5

Falcons at Jaguars (London)
Projected score: Jaguars 30, Falcons 20
The pick: Jaguars -3

Broncos at Bears
Projected score: Broncos 27, Bears 20
The pick: Broncos -3.5

Ravens at Browns
Projected score: Browns 24, Ravens 20
The pick: Browns -2.5

Dolphins at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Dolphins 27
The pick: Bills -2.5

Bengals at Titans
Projected score: Bengals 27, Titans 24
The pick: Bengals -2.5

Rams at Colts
Projected score: Colts 23, Rams 20
The pick: Colts -1

Commanders at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 33, Commanders 20
The pick: Eagles -8.5 

Vikings at Panthers
Projected score: Vikings 27, Panthers 23
The pick: Vikings -3.5

Raiders at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 33, Raiders 27
The pick: Chargers -5.5

Cardinals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
The pick: Cardinals +14